Global season of reckoning arrives
IF the last few years of international politics felt like a slow crawl towards a precipice, the final three months of 2018 may be when we reach the edge and see what is below.
With Donald Trump’s ascent to the Oval Office, the Brexit mandate from British voters, the ongoing war in Syria and Russia’s flagrant foray into other nations’ elections, the last few years have been a period of cerebral whiplash for anyone following international affairs.
The next three months could establish whether a cluster of political anomalies hit the world at once or whether we are living through the birth of a new world order.
For many, the November 6 United States midterm elections will be the year’s most important story. All 435 congressional seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs, as well as dozens of governorships.
It would be of little surprise if the Democrats were to retake the House of Representatives; President Obama lost the House in his first midterm election. Losing the Senate looms as far less likely but nevertheless possible.
There is also the chance Republicans will retain both houses; an unambiguous message from American voters that Trump and his bullyboy style of governing deserves another two years of leeway.
In the United Kingdom, Brexit has forged onwards like a truck jackknifing on a busy motorway. All around, what was seemingly important is being destroyed or discarded as the Theresa Mayled Government fights to stay in control of its own survival.
But a series of concrete walls are now dead ahead, the first being the October 18 European Union summit where the final negotiations for Britain’s EU departure will be held, although an emergency summit is slated for November to tie off any loose ends.
The year’s final European Council, beginning December 13, will be the last practical date for the EU divorce deal to be signed. With the United Kingdom sched uled to leave the EU on March 29, the British Parliament must vote on Brexit in January. Perhaps the biggest concrete wall of all will come in the form of a possible second referendum — an event looking more likely by the day.
While Special Counsel Robert Mueller faces no legal deadline over his investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 US election, it will likely be far better understood before year’s end. Mr Mueller is expected to stay quiet in the period preceding the midterm elections to ensure he isn’t seen as affecting the outcome. It is unlikely that silence will continue after November 6.
Meanwhile, the UK’s investigation into Russia’s alleged involvement in the Salisbury poisonings will continue; there is a strong chance North Korean leader Kim Jongun and President Trump will meet for a second summit before the year is out; and the US and Russia will continue to butt heads over the ongoing conflict in Syria. More headbutting is also expected over Iran, with the EU, Russia and China working together to sidestep this year’s US sanctions.
It is likely events over the next few months will be taught in history classes for decades to come. And much like the images of families huddled around the wireless in 1939 England, there will be individuals hunched over their smartphones as they follow the constant barrage of international news.
In place of us having any power to affect that news, it is worth remembering New Zealanders can still affect each other’s lives. How we treat our families, friends, neighbours and wider communities may seem insignificant in the face of international events, but it is all we have the power to control.
Perhaps, as global politics churns through the final months of 2018, a deliberate attempt by Kiwis to focus on each other, rather than that which we cannot control, is the only antidote we have to the chaos unfolding around the world.