Local 2019 result key for Green party
WHEN you live on the margin, small things matter . . . which is why next year looms as a crucial one for the Green Party in Dunedin.
Under MMP, 5% is the holy grail for Parliamentary survival, and the tightrope along which the Greens have walked for most of the party’s existence.
In recent years, the seat of Dunedin North has been vital to the Greens hitting that mark.
Boosted both by the high number of students in the electorate and the fact MP Metiria Turei lived there and stood as an electorate candidate, Dunedin North always punched above its weight for the Greens.
Ms Turei was elected Green Party coleader in 2009 — by which time she had already served two terms as an MP.
In the 2011 election she boosted the Green’s number of party votes in the electorate by nearly 2000, and by another 1000 again in 2014, to 8035.
That made Dunedin North the thirdhighest party vote polling seat for the Greens, behind Wellington Central and Rongotai.
Buoyed by Ms Turei’s profile, the Greens moved into Dunedin local body politics.
They backed Aaron Hawkins for mayor in 2013 and again in 2016, and he and other Greenaligned candidates made it on to Dunedin City Council — including current Dunedin branch coconvener Marie Laufiso.
However, 2017 was the year momentum stalled.
Ms Turei began the election campaign by confessing to benefit fraud, and created a hailstorm of comment.
While some praised her bravery, three weeks later Ms Turei resigned as coleader and as a list candidate.
Unsurprisingly, the Green Party vote suffered accordingly, and dropped from 11% nationally in 2014 to 6.3%.
Dunedin North stayed loyal — despite Ms Turei standing as a candidate in Te Tai Tonga — but slipped to fourth in the ranks of most party votes delivered to the Greens.
Even allowing for unique circumstances of the 2017 election, the steep decline in the Dunedin North Green party vote — from 8035 to 5110 — was a concern for the party.
Neighbouring Dunedin South, where Ms Turei often campaigned, also bled Green votes — it dropped from the region of 4000 party votes in 2011 and 2014, to 2362 in 2017 — roughly the usual number of votes the Greens receive in many urban electorates.
Should Dunedin North, shorn of its close affiliation with party leadership, continue to decline to the Green’s usual level of support nationwide, that is several thousand votes the party will need to find somewhere else.
Which makes the Green’s loss of profile in the city troubling for party leadership.
Insiders have told the Otago Daily Times that Dunedin Greens were left stunned after the 2017 election and morale has taken time to recover — despite the fact the party has representation in Cabinet for the first time.
Its Dunedin North office has closed, and with fewer MPs — none of whom are locals — visits by the Parliamentary team have been sporadic.
However, some have detected a revival in interest in Green politics in recent months — membership remains high and the campus branch remains active.
Looking ahead, next year’s local body election looms as a potential rallying point for the party in Dunedin — if their candidates perform well, it could provide muchneeded momentum for 2020’s general election.
The big fear, however, is whether 2014 marked high tide for the Green Party in the city, and if Dunedin North could become ‘‘just another seat’’ for the Greens, rather than a source of strength.
The election results announcement on October 12, 2019 will be watched with interest not just locally, but by those concerned about the
election scheduled for 2020.
A Misspent Childhood?
Dunedin South MP Clare Curran inspired smiles — and raised a few eyebrows — with her recollection of what Sister Ambrose advised her and her seventh form classmates regarding sex, drugs and incense.
Ms Curran’s general debate speech had a point though, comparing the National Party’s moral stance on the medicinal cannabis legislation with the morality of times since past.
Creation vs Evolution?
Every newspaper the world over is besieged from time to time by letters to the editor debating how the world was formed.
Parliament played out the debate in miniature on Tuesday with the passing of the Misuse of Drugs (Medicinal Cannabis) Amendment Act: Invercargill MP Liz Craig said the legislation would see regulation and standards regarding medicinal cannabis ‘‘evolve’’ while Dunedinbased National list MP Michael Woodhouse said the Act would create legalised marijuana by stealth.
Like the existential question, this is a debate which is far from over.
Mr Walker Goes To Baku
It isn’t quite being sent to Siberia, but Clutha Southland National MP Hamish Walker is to represent New Zealand at the Global Conference of Young Parliamentarians in Azerbaijan later this month.
Mr Walker is thrilled to be going . . . although you wonder if there was much competition for his seat.