Higher winds, little rain relief in sight

NELSON: Winds with the potential to flare up the huge forest fire near Nelson are expected to increase over the weekend, and despite a humidity increase there is little sign of rain on the tinderdry hills in the coming weeks, Niwa says.

Low rainfall, high sunshine hours, a heatwave and widespread dryness have been described as perfect conditions for the blaze which began four days ago.

It was the country’s thirdwarmest January on record and temperatures were above average in every region except Westland and Western Southland.

Many locations had record or nearrecord averages, average maximums or average minimums during the month, and rainfall was well below normal in Nelson, Marlborough Tasman and parts of Canterbury, in particular.

Richmond and Appleby, both close to the area where the fire is now burning, observed 355 sunshine hours, a record for the sunniest month recorded in the South Island.

Niwa spokesman Chris Brandolino said the weekend was likely to bring higher winds.

‘‘That’ll be something we’ll have to keep our eyes on.’’

He said there might be a little bit of light rain or drizzle this morning and maybe again in the afternoon but but in negligible amounts.

‘‘I would say less than 2mm, if any.

‘‘But perhaps the higher humidity will help. Humidity levels . . . will likely be . . . north of 70% much of the morning hours, into the midday hour so that’s a good thing — maybe higher than 80%.’’

No significant rain is forecast in the Tasman district in the next few weeks, and the local council says river and ground water levels continue to drop following the prolonged heat of the last month.

‘‘The vegetation’s quite dry, as you can imagine.

‘‘We had very dry conditions there going back to November and of course it’s been very dry in December and January,’’ Mr Brandolino said.

A regional coordinator for the Rural Support Trust, Barbara Stuart, said farmers in the area should prepare for the worst.

‘‘It’s tinder dry out there on the hills and the rural support trust is very concerned for the farmers in the region.

‘‘We’re just sort of hoping for the best but planning for the worst.

‘‘For our horticulture sector, they’re going to have to be making good decisions about what they irrigate and what they let go.’’