NZ missing out on technology

NEW Zealand should monitor the impact of new technologies on labour markets internationally while looking for ways to improve our capacity to take them up and adapt to any changes that result, the Productivity Commission says.

While some forecasters are predicting deep job losses in some sectors from the takeup of artificial intelligence and other forms of automation, the commission says the rate of uptake of technology internationally appears to be slowing, rather than accelerating.

And while new technologies can have impacts on particular professions or industries, ‘‘there is little evidence that new or previous technologies are strongly labourreplacing in aggregate’’, the commission says in the first of four reports on evolving technologies and their potential impact on New Zealand.

‘‘If the rate of technological change was accelerating, you’d expect to see evidence in the official statistics, such as faster productivity growth, more business startups, and more jobs being created and destroyed. But what we see in New Zealand and across the developed world is the opposite,’’ said Judy Kavanagh, who is leading the commission’s inquiry into technology and productivity.

‘‘Rates of job destruction have actually declined in New Zealand since 2000. And recent rates of job creation are at a similar level to rates in the early 2000s.’’

The Government in February tasked the commission with assessing the impact of potentially disruptive new technologies on the work force, labour markets, productivity and wellbeing.

It also sought advice on the best ways to manage those risks, while optimising the potential benefits that would also flow from the technology.

Yesterday’s report looked at New Zealand’s use of technology and its relationship with technology.

The next three reports will cover employment, labour markets and incomes; education and skills; and ways to prepare the country for the future. The commission will lodge its final report in March.

The commission said the nature of work will change during the next 1015 years, but the rate of that change was unlikely to be unprecedented.

The prospect of dramatic improvements in the ability of artificial intelligence to drive largescale displacement should not be discounted and the Government should be monitoring international developments to identify any divergence from current trends.

While the local labourmarket impacts are likely to lag, and be more muted than those overseas, ‘‘that comes with a warning that faster adoption of technology overseas could see New Zealand fall behind, with consequences for jobs and incomes’’.

Ms Kavanagh said technology adoption supported higher productivity growth and higher incomes and provides resources to pay for the things New Zealanders value.

She says the main problem facing New Zealand was not too much technology, but not enough.

The commission said its preliminary observations were that maximising mobility, resilience and employment opportunities would allow faster and smoother adjustment to change.

The education and training system could be improved to better enable existing and future workers adapt to technological change and it warned that trying to regulate for specific technology could quickly become obsolete and delay or prevent its adoption.

Protecting declining industries or artificially inflating new ones could delay, magnify or create future adjustment costs.

‘‘By failing to pick up and spread the world’s best technologies, New Zealand has lost opportunities to gain higher living standards. The path to greater wellbeing lies with more technology adoption and diffusion.’’

Submissions on yesterday’s report and the next three close on January 20. — BusinessDesk

❛ By failing to pick up and spread the world’s best technologies, New

Zealand has lost opportunities to gain higher living standards