Forsyth Barr backing ABs
THE number crunchers at investment adviser Forsyth Barr have picked the All Blacks to do a world cup threepeat in Japan.
The Dunedin based firm’s 2019 Rugby and Marketsanalysis says there is a 36% chance of the All Blacks hoisting the Webb Ellis Cup on November 2, more than double the chances of rivals the Springboks (15%), England (14%) or Wales (11%).
The analysis — across five key measures — also shows that Australia and France have moved backwards the most since the last World Cup.
The Wallabies, as the sixthranked side, still have an 8% chance of winning, though Les bleus come in with a meagre 3% chance.
How is it likely to play out? The prognosis is that despite spirited resistance from Wales and England — which will both be knocked out by the resurgent Springboks and the All Blacks respectively, in the semifinals, the men in black will again face the ’Boks in the final.
Forsyth Barr chairman David Kirk said the development of the prediction model balanced ‘‘passionate rugby support with a thorough, considered analysis of each nation’s prospects’’.
‘‘They have also applied our proprietary prediction model, leveraging a range of data sources, to share their view.’’
The analysis considers each nation’s current form, historic and current performance, betting odds and surveys its own investment advisers.
It also takes into account the draw, with those countries in weaker pools having a greater chance of progressing to the knockout stages and winning the whole tournament.
Head of research Andy Bowley, a selfconfessed England supporter, said that despite the obvious emotion of the event and home bias, there wasn’t a ‘‘whole heap’’ of subjective analysis.
It is the third time the tournament prediction model has landed on the All Blacks as favourites, although Mr Bowley said there were no guarantees and the margin between contenders was likely to be much narrower this time round.
While the research was published before Japan’s historic win over Ireland, rugby and markets predicts that ‘‘a nailbiting win’’ over Scotland could take Japan through to the quarterfinals, possibly for a game against New Zealand.
The investment squad might just know what they are talking about.