Fears Brazil’s cases underreported
BRASILIA/RIO DE JANEIRO: Brazil probably has 12 times more cases of the new coronavirus than are being officially reported by the Government, with too little testing and long waits to confirm the results, according to a study released yesterday.
Researchers at a consortium of Brazilian universities and institutes examined the ratio of cases resulting in deaths to April 10 and compared it with data on the expected death rate from the World Health Organisation.
The much higherthanexpected death rate in Brazil indicates there are many more cases of the virus than are being counted, with the study estimating only 8% of cases are being officially reported.
The Government has focused on testing serious cases rather than all suspected cases, according to the consortium, known as the Centre for Health Operations and Intelligence. The centre and medical professionals have also complained of long wait times to get test results.
Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta has said that it is difficult to distribute tests in Brazil because of the size of the country, but acknowledges that testing needs to improve.
Officially, Brazil’s coronavirus death toll rose to 1355 yesterday, while the number of confirmed cases hit 23,723.
As of last Friday, Brazil had had about 127,000 suspected cases and carried out just short of 63,000 tests, ministry figures indicate. A health ministry official yesterday said more than 93,000 tests were still being processed. This year, the number of hospitalisations for severe respiratory symptoms has been over three times higher than usual for the time of year, but only 12% of those have been confirmed as Covid19, the severe respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus.
‘‘The high degree of undernotification could give a false impression about control of the disease, and consequently, could lead to a decline in containment measures,’’ the centre said.
The outbreak has stoked tension in the Brazilian Government. Rightwing President Jair Bolsonaro has downplayed risks of the virus and urged the country to return to normal, while his health minister, state governors and local officials called for stricter measures.
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases around the world is hovering around 2 million, but the lack of fresh hot spots has yielded a ray of optimism.
The brunt of the disease has been felt most heavily in New York, Italy, France, Spain and the United Kingdom, but grim projections of a virus that would spread with equal ferocity to other corners of the world have not yet materialised.
Officials around the world are worried that halting quarantine and socialdistancing measures could undo the progress that those steps have achieved in slowing the spread.
However, there are signs countries are looking in that direction. Spain permitted some workers to return to their jobs, while a hardhit region of Italy loosened its lockdown restrictions.
Thousands of shops across Austria will reopen today.
Governors on both coasts of the US announced that they would join forces to come up with a coordinated reopening at some point, setting the stage for a potential conflict with President Donald Trump, who asserted that he is the ultimate decisionmaker for determining how and when to reopen.
In New York the daily toll dipped below 700 for the first time in a week. The number of people hospitalised has flattened to just under 1000.
Dr Sebastian Johnston, a professor of respiratory medicine at Imperial College London, said it appeared that Covid19 had peaked in much of Europe, including France, Spain, Germany, Italy and the UK.
He was worried the virus might now start to take off in countries across Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia. There was also concern about Russia.
Last night, Russia’s death toll was relatively low at 170, but it reported an increase of 2774 cases in a day, taking the total to 21,102. — Reuters/AP