Bubble plan worth floating
WE call our Australian neighbours our Anzac mates and transtasman cousins. And, as we try to smooth the jagged edges of the Covid19 recession, we should be prepared to call them our bubble buddies.
Tragedy and triumph have bound us for the best part of 200 years but our combined response to the looming regional recession will, over the coming months, help shape our fortunes for years to come.
New Zealand was deep in Level 4 lockdown when talkturned to harnessing transtasman cooperation as a way to soften the worst effects of the global downturn. It intensified as businesses closed then collapsed.
Otago tourism leaders in March pitched a plan for a common border with Australia as a means to encourage transtasman tourism once New Zealand was sure Australia was on top of the coronavirus threat.
There were many questions as to how Australia’s lessproscriptive approach to containment might affect the practical and political viability of a shared border, not least of all whether the risk outweighs the gains.
Since then, Australia has made great strides in flattening the transmission curve, so much so that it is frequently set alongside New Zealand — an early darling in the pandemic tale — as ‘‘beating’’ the epidemic.
Foreign Minster Winston Peters went much further when he said New Zealand and Australia were ‘‘beating the crap’’ out of Covid19, before further fuelling speculation our fortunes might soon be intertwined.
A transtasman bubble made sense, he said, as long as both countries could guaranteed their safety and security. Work was being done, and there was a chance the first visitors might arrive for ski season.
This was a big call from the Deputy Prime Minister because officials, wary of the fuelling expectations, have been careful not to ascribe timeframes to the managed emergence from the Covid19 response.
Australians were last month told international travel might not resume before the end of the year even as politicians on this side of the Tasman suggested a transtasman bubble was worth discussing.
Our Prime Ministers have since confirmed discussions have started and Australians have been told New Zealand ‘‘might’’ be in the mix as interstate travel restrictions are reconsidered and relaxed.
Tourism leaders will greet all of this with cautious optimism. Despite plans to increase domestic tourism promotion when travel restrictions end, they know a market of 30 million people is better than one of less than 5 million.
About 1.5 million Australians visit New Zealand each year, about 60% arriving on holiday. They are a loyal, shorthaul market and many thousands of them fuel Otago’s once lucrative winter tourism scene.
Queenstown and Wanaka have worked hard to make themselves mustgo destinations for adventureminded Australians, and they will want some further direction from the Government as soon as practicable. However, they will also want clarity as to what travel New Zealanders can enjoy when the country moves into Level 2. The rules say people will be advised to avoid nonessential interregional travel, and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says such travel has been problematic for containment in the past.
Even so, the Cabinet will doublecheck the settings before shifting New Zealand to the next level — a prospect some suggest leaves the door open for relaxing safe access to our tourism areas. Business leaders have put the accent on ‘‘safe’’ as the new normal starts to take shape, supporting a graduated approach rather than risking a return to Level 3 or Level 4. The collective sacrifice cannot be for nothing.
Maintaining our response may improve the chances of establishing a mutually beneficial, safe bubble with Australia, providing some market diversity in a world where discretionary income has lessened, where travellers are wary, and where local fortunes depend on what happens somewhere else.