Lockdown averted major ICU influx: DHB

ALERT Level 4 saved the southern region from a catastrophic Covid19driven overwhelming of hospital intensive care units, a Southern District Health Board report suggests.

The report, by chief executive Chris Fleming, said that on April 6 the board’s bestcase scenario was that there would be just nine days when intensive care beds would be at capacity with Covid19 patients.

However, the board was planning for 31 days of maximum occupancy and 60 days when there were more patients than beds.

Its worstcase scenario predicted 56 days with ICU at capacity and 76 days with more than 12 patients needing care.

The SDHB had set aside 269 general hospital beds for Covid19 patients, with its most optimistic projection being for 50 days at the system’s maximum capacity.

It was planning for 184 beds occupied, and at worst the South could have had 329 beds at its hospitals occupied with Covid19 cases.

In the worstcase scenario, with disease projections at the time, even with expanded ICU capacity, the SDHB would have been overwhelmed on May 25 and hospital capacity would have been swamped on June 27, Mr Fleming said.

On April 6, when the projections were modelled, the South reported 17 new cases of Covid19, a total of 177 cases, and health staff were battling major clusters of cases in Queenstown Lakes and Bluff.

However, several weeks of Alert Level 4 lockdown later, the SDHB region has recorded just another 39 cases of Covid19 — and no new cases for the past 13 days.

‘‘On the surface one could debate that the actions taken have been too great because we have prepared ourselves for an influx which ultimately has not occurred,’’ Mr Fleming said.

‘‘However, the modelling and how fast it has changed needs to be recognised . . . in the event that the modelling at the time of the lockdown had eventuated we would have needed every bed possible.’’

The ‘‘focus and energy’’ of public health teams had been essential for the success to date, Mr Fleming said.

While the SDHB’s results were laudable, Mr Fleming cautioned against any relaxation of measures to prevent the spread of Covid19, which has killed two people in the southern region and resulted in 19 deaths across New Zealand.

As well as uncertainty about what impact the shift to Alert Level 3 this week would have on case numbers, Mr Fleming said other nonCovid19 health issues such as substance abuse, family violence and mental health issues could soon manifest themselves.

‘‘These issues will increase demand for primary care and mental health care needs significantly; it will be vital that we are active in our planning and response to this,’’ he said.

‘‘The temptation will be to believe that as we move to Level 3 and then hopefully very shortly thereafter to Level 2 that the crisis is over but the reality is that the real impacts are only starting to be felt,’’ Mr Fleming said.

His report will be considered by the SDHB at a meeting tomorrow.

His general CEO’s report to the board noted that the full financial impact of Covid19 on the SDHB — which already had one of the highest health board deficits before the advent of the virus — was yet to be seen on balance sheets which were complete up until the end of March.

There was $2.5 million in unplanned capital expenditure in March, potential loss of $1.1 million in revenue, and $300,000 more operational expenditure than budgeted for.

‘‘We will work with the Ministry of Health to determine how appropriate financial arrangements will be identified,’’ Mr Fleming said.