$4b boost from transtasman bubble: report

A TRANSTASMAN bubble could provide a $4 billion ‘‘turbocharged’’ economic boost by the year’s end, according to a report by Ernst & Young Australia.

That scenario is based on the border opening today, and the ‘‘business as usual’’ Australian tourism spend of about $2 billion being doubled due to an increased propensity for travel.

But leading epidemiologist Michael Baker, of the University of Otago, warns against viewing economic and health impacts in isolation from each other, and calls for New Zealand to continue its cautious approach.

A transtasman bubble has been looked at since May, and tourism operators, business associations and the air travel industry have all been lobbying for it to happen as soon as safely possible — particularly as the ski season gets under way.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said yesterday being able to do so safely remained the key factor, citing the outbreak in Victoria as putting the brakes on the idea.

With most other Australian states having largely pursued and achieved a form of elimination, the door was open for state connections, but the ‘‘ball is in Australia’s court’’ as to how fast that can occur, she said.

‘‘If Australia chooses to allow statetostate travel that is their decision, and that will determine the speed of any transtasman bubble,’’ she said.

Having a form of quarantinefree travel between the countries — and any others — would depend on having similar elimination targets, being free of community transmission and for how long, a high standard of testing and contact tracing, and a good flow of information along with border management.

‘‘But ultimately No 1 is safety,’’ Ms Ardern said.

New Zealand Aviation Coalition cochairman Kevin Ward said it was interesting to see the EY report, and the scale of the economic benefits of travel between the two countries.

The report looked at three scenarios: business as usual; keen and eager, where half the tourism expenditure lost during the border closure is recovered along with normal tourist spending; and turbocharged, based on propensity for travel doubling as seen in shopping figures post lockdown.

Australians spent close to $4 billion here in the year to September last year.

Under business as usual, EY estimated Australian tourists would spend just over $2 billion by the year’s end, contributing, too, to an increase of more than 22,000 fulltime jobs.

This would be doubled to $4 billion under a ‘‘turbocharged’’ scenario, where nearly 50,000 fulltime jobs would be added.

Queenstown Lakes District Mayor Jim Boult said it was ‘‘enormously important’’ to reopen travel with Australia as soon as it is safe.

The snow was falling, skifields were open, and while many New Zealanders were flocking to the slopes, they normally only made up about half their visitors, the bulk of the remainder from across the Tasman.

‘‘[The transtasman bubble] is hugely important, and could mean the difference between businesses failing and people keeping their jobs,’’ Mr Boult said.

The EY report follows another, released last week by Sir Peter Gluckman, Helen Clark and former Air New Zealand chief Rob Fyfe, which said an extended delay in opening the borders would cause huge damage to the country’s economy and social wellbeing, and it was time to change the goals.

‘‘Nobody is saying open the borders today . . . but at some time in the near future we have to have a strategy in place of gradually opening the border, because we cannot [keep it closed] indefinitely,’’ Sir Peter said.

Prof Baker said the EY report was problematic and only looked at a ‘‘small part’’ of the equation.

‘‘I assume they are meaning when travel is back to a preCovid level with no restrictions, and that is not a very practical option.’’

It was also not helpful to frame the discussion as ‘‘health versus the economy’’.

‘‘They are closely aligned, and the elimination strategy the country is taking has huge health and economic benefits.’’

Prof Baker said our cautious approach had allowed people to travel domestically without social distancing, while countries around the world were still experiencing major outbreaks.

New Zealand was already taking a riskbased approach with New Zealanders returning from overseas, some of whom had Covid19.

The key was ensuring the risk was managed, he said.

He suggested a more nuanced approach, looking first at Pacific island nations that have always been Covidfree, moving to those that have eliminated the virus, including Australian states in isolation of each other. — The New Zealand Herald

THE lawyer for the event company for the 36th America’s Cup and Emirates Team New Zealand says the case is ‘‘highly unusual’’ and a report concerning his clients must remain secret for the time being.

Davey Salmon was arguing for continued suppression of a Beattie Varley report. He said its publication could cause serious damage to individuals which could not be reversed, even if the allegations are proven to be untrue.

America’s Cup Event Ltd (Ace) and ETNZ obtained an urgent interim injunction preventing media publication of the report into the event last week.

Whether the gag order continues is now in the hands of Justice Simon Moore, who in the High Court at Auckland heard that the report contained such commercially and competitively sensitive information that damages would not be adequate if the report is released.

Mr Salmon emphasised the yachting environment meant it was an issue of sporting competitiveness.

‘‘Spies are real,’’ he said, having referenced the way that ETNZ crew worked out their upper bodies to throw competitors off their strategy of using cycle grinders in the last regatta.

That showed just how important secrecy was, he said.

‘‘Them knowing anything about the other parties, finances, strategies or tactics is just dynamite,’’ Mr Salmon said, in reference to ETNZ’s competitors.

He emphasised the report was an interim audit and his clients needed more time to respond in a ‘‘calm, factbased way.’’

It would be 21 calendar days until that would be resolved.

He also noted that deposits into a Hungarian bank account, reported by the media, were not a failing of his client Grant Dalton as chief executive, but of contractor Michael Choy as financial controller for Ace.

ETNZ’s position is that Mr Choy did not undertake standard due diligence and it was his fault money went to an email scammer.

NZME lawyer Robert Stewart argued The New Zealand Herald had sought comment on the allegations and received comment from Mr Dalton.

He also noted the newspaper was willing to ‘‘enter a dialogue’’ in relation to what ‘‘truly personal information’’ the paper would not publish.

The judge questioned Mr Stewart on what remedies ETNZ and Ace could pursue if he did not keep the information secret.

‘‘Defamation is an expost facto remedy which recognises relief in damages, but don’t we have duty to see what can be done to ensure that harm isn’t caused?’’ the judge said.

Mr Stewart said that public interests outweighed confidentiality in this case and said even if it was a private contract, it was public money.

‘‘The fact that the organisation is receiving large sums of public money and was dismissive about auditors’ requests, and said: ‘present your report, we’ll deal with all of this later’ — that in itself is a matter of public interest.’’

Mr Stewart also said there would be considerable delays if the newspaper had to go through the Official Information Act to get the report out in the open, as it would likely be redacted and then the media would have to go the ombudsman.

‘‘It is a perfectly legitimate point: the fact that news may become stale through the influx of time has to be a consideration . . . I’m not immune to that submission,’’ the judge said.

‘‘The defendant doesn’t want to jeopardise New Zealand’s defence of the America’s Cup but at the same time it wants accountability for public funds and that hasn’t happened,’’ Mr Stewart said.

Michael Heron QC, who is representing the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment, Auckland Council and Beattie Varley as their agents, said his clients do not formally oppose the application.

But he said the Beattie Vartley report was not intended for publication.

Its focus was not the whistleblower complaint, which BusinessDesk last week established came from the principals of sports event management firm Mayo & Calder, Tom Mayo and Grant Calder, and Mr Choy, their accountant.

Mayo & Calder was contracted by Ace as the events company’s senior management team.

Mr Heron noted recordings made at board meetings that were used in the Beattie Vartley investigation were supplied in good faith by a whistleblower who was party to the board meetings, and that that would not amount to a criminal offence.

The recordings remain the subject of suppression orders.

Mr Heron also said that Beattie Varley believed the whistleblower had permission to make the recording, although noted that ETNZ disputed this.

The judge has indicated a judgement would likely be delivered next week. — BusinessDesk

❛ Them knowing anything about the other

parties, finances, strategies or tactics is

just dynamite