Dairy to feel change ‘acutely’

AUCKLAND: Fonterra says its scientists are only scratching the surface in terms of finding new benefits from dairy, as an international study claims the dairy industry will feel ‘‘most acutely’’ an enormous transformation of the global food and beverage sector in the next 10 years.

New research by Sweden’s Lund University and global food processing and packaging heavyweight Tetra Pak offers four scenarios for what the dairy value chain might look like in 2030, all of which show cows remaining contributors but with increasing input from plants and laboratories.

The study authors say all four scenarios, from ‘‘dairy evolution’’ (a future with no new big surprises) to ‘‘brave new food’’ (where 50% is labgrown) are plausible and very different — but all have points in common.

‘‘Large, efficient dairy manufacturers without close farming ties [cooperative model] may be more flexible than other manufacturers.

‘‘Farsighted food conglomerates may have smart investment strategies that cover more than one technological approach.

‘‘Food entrepreneurs [niche manufacturers] will have opportunities to provide relevant innovations and value propositions.’’

Fonterra, New Zealand’s biggest company by revenue and the world’s sixthlargest dairy company, is a farmerowned cooperative.

The study says the reality may vary in one or more markets, or globally.

But two critical dimensions would impact the dairy industry’s development — technology transition and socioenvironmental forces.

‘‘Dialogue and collaboration — and applying flexibility to plan accordingly in order to handle the next 10 years as the dairy industry evolves — will be key to success,’’ it said.

The study involved the US, UK, China, India, Nigeria and Brazil markets with the full project focus on the first four countries.

The four scenarios are ‘‘dairy evolution’’: 85% cowbased with current trends continuing and only incremental changes; ‘‘green dairy’’: 60% cowbased and marked by strong socioenvironmental restrictions, with an industry focus on reducing its carbon footprint and low technological transition; ‘‘new fusion’’: 40% cowbased, 35% labgrown and dominated by technologies and processes with novel combinations of proteins from different sources; and ‘‘brave new food’’: 20% cowgrown and 50% labgrown, combining strong socioenvironmental restrictions and high technology transition with artisanal and premium dairy and cheese continuing to thrive.

Very few megafactory farms remain in the ‘‘brave new food’’ scenario.

Fonterra chief science and technology officer Jeremy Hill said the relative contributions of dairy cow, plant and labgrown nutrition were debatable but Fonterra was working to ensure it was wellpositioned to fit with any of ‘‘these extremes’’.

‘‘We are embracing the opportunities for our pasturefed New Zealand dairy and at the same time have a team looking at the potential of technologybased and plantbased sources of nutrition that can complement dairy, Mr Hill said.

‘‘In each of the scenarios, cowbased dairy remains a primary source of nutrition, so it is a case of ‘and’ not ‘eitheror’, which has been part of our thinking and strategy for some time.

‘‘We agree with the conclusions . . . that dialogue and collaboration and applying flexibility will be key to addressing challenges and capturing the opportunities over the next 10 years and beyond.

‘‘As a cooperative we often talk about the untapped potential of milk because our scientists are finding new benefits from dairy all the time — we’ve only scratched the surface.’’ — The New Zealand Herald