Real risk of UK crashing out of EU if grownups don’t step up
BY the time the outcome of the election had been determined, I was tempting fate, and not in a good way.
The day started well enough. I had a plan because if there was one thing I learned in the election campaign it was that everyone had a plan and if you have a plan you need to tell people you have a plan.
Mostly, they didn’t seem to be highly detailed plans, but any plan is better than no plan, so I had one.
My election day plan wasn’t particularly detailed either. It involved voting at my local polling booth. I love voting on election day because it has more of a community feel than doing it on some random preelection day. And, usually, I meet someone I know outside the booth for a natter. My plan paid off.
Biking off to my nearest cafe‚ to reward myself with a shot of caffeine for my civicmindedness, I noticed a dead duck on the road. I couldn’t tell its gender. Whatever it was, I hoped it didn’t have ducklings.
Every year on Portobello Rd there are duck dramas — drivers screeching to a halt to avoid duck crossings and the occasions when we are confronted with the aftermath when the screeching has not worked. I cannot erase the heartbreaking sight one year of a distraught duck scuttling to and from its freshly dead mate, risking its own life while it seemed to be trying to make sense of what had happened.
Because it was election day and I was deprived of garrulous political commentary, I was looking for signs. Was the carcass the portend of political dead ducks yet to come?
Shopping later for election night essentials, crisps and bubbles, I had an unplanned political discussion with an acquaintance as we rubbed shoulders in the supermarket’s wine section. He was agonising over what to pour over frozen strawberries, to get the full red effect, while cheapness was my concern. He did not agree with my view that too much red would be unhealthy and that the addition of some green would be better for the environment.
Back home alone (if you discount the cat), I was soon in my jimjams, shovelling in the crisps and watching TV. Early on I realised I had to take back my rant to the family days earlier about the calibre of the Auckland Central voters who, according to the polls then, appeared to be choosing the Labour candidate over the Greens’ Chloe Swarbrick.
‘‘I don’t care who they normally vote for, but why can’t they see how parliament needs MPs like her — young, bright, thoughtful and capable of rational argument. And, she already has experience! ’’
(There is a delightful interaction between former National MP Marilyn Waring and Chloe on the Spinoff if anyone needs to be convinced.)
I did not shed a tear for the departure of Winston Peters. Maybe that was a little unkind. Oddly enough, my first column in this newspaper in 1997 was a letter to him. It outlined my fears at the impact his hopedfor compulsory superannuation savings scheme would have on me, someone who had been out of the paid workforce for 15 years raising a family and who was about to be widowed. His proposal, which went to a referendum, was rejected. It is curious to see that all these years later there is criticism of Kiwisaver being unfair to women who still have shorter and often lowerpaid working lives than men.
By about 10pm, since the outcome was well and truly clear, I thought it was time to activate the breakoutthebubbly plan. Although I have become skilled over the years at the efficient removal of Champagne corks, not spilling a drop and not taking anybody’s eye out in the process, my bargain bottle’s cork refused to budge. Like a surgeon preparing for an operation, I assembled a lineup of possible removal instruments on a tea towel. When I found myself stabbing at the cork with a knife, I decided it would be better to go implementfree rather than add to the red tide of the night with a visit to the emergency department.
By the time I wrestled out the cork, I felt like a cup of tea and a lie down.
Next morning, biking to the cafe‚ again, there was no sign of the dead duck. Perhaps I was channelling the National Party who might have been waking up pretending the previous day never happened.
At the bottom of a nearby steep hill, sitting neatly beside the left edge of the road was a plump ripe tomato. If it was part of anyone’s plan, nobody has told me what it meant.
THE British pantomime is a traditional Christmas entertainment in which stock characters face imaginary dangers and audience participation is encouraged (‘‘He’s behind you!’’), but the play never frightens the children and it always has a happy ending.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson could be a pantomime character: he blusters and rages, he takes the most awful risks and he seems to get away with it. After his latest move, a senior British diplomat remarked wearily that ‘‘we’re getting used to being part of Johnson’s pantomime’’. But it may not end happily this time.
‘‘Trade talks are over,’’ Johnson’s spokesman said on Saturday. ‘‘The EU [European Union] have effectively ended them by saying they do not want to change their negotiating position.’’
The spokesman didn’t mention it, of course, but Johnson doesn’t want to change his negotiating position either.
Most negotiations, including the current UKEU talks to decide on the postBrexit trading relationship between the former partners, involve a game of chicken towards the end of the proceedings. One party, usually the one that isn’t doing very well in the talks, threatens to blow everything up and walk away.
With Johnson, it was practically guaranteed. He’s well known for setting deadlines and making empty threats about what will happen if he doesn’t get his way by then. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, even mocked him for it last week.
‘‘It is the third unilateral deadline that Johnson has imposed without agreement,’’ Barnier said. ‘‘We still have time.’’
A postBrexit trade deal, not great for Britain but far better than nothing, is still quite possible. The problem is that Johnson won the election last December by saying he could ‘‘absolutely guarantee’’ that he would get a ‘‘fantastic’’ freetrade agreement. Indeed, it was ‘‘ovenready’’.
Johnson must have known that was sheer fantasy even at the time. But it means he must now have a couple of highprofile ‘‘wins’’ to obscure the fact that the trade deal after Britain’s ‘‘transitional year’’ ends on December 31 (if there is one) will be a miserable little thing, not remotely comparable to the completely free trade the UK enjoyed as an EU member.
So Johnson is trying to shake loose a symbolic victory or two by threatening to walk out without a deal. This is very unlikely to succeed, because he is playing chicken with an adversary who is driving a very large truck (EU population 450 million people, GDP
$US16 trillion, $NZ24.3 trillion), while he is driving a Mini (UK population 68 million, GDP $US2.8 trillion).
In trade negotiations, it’s the bigger economy that calls the tune, so the EU negotiators assume Johnson is just bluffing. After all, they called a quite similar bluff of his last year and he crumbled. Surely, they reckon, he’ll just make a brief show of defiance, and then come round again like he did last time.
In theory they should be right, because Britain will suffer far more harm than the EU if there is no trade deal. However, Johnson’s prime ministership is safe no matter how disappointed and angry the electorate gets, because he has a big majority in parliament and the next election is four years away.
His hold on the office is not secure, however, if the fanatical Brexiters in his own party decide he has failed. His final decision will be driven by which outcome does him more harm politically within his own party, and that is a question of appearances.
As the grownups in the room, the EU’s diplomats should now be devising a way for Johnson to disguise his defeat, but there is little sign this is happening. Their contempt for Johnson’s tactics may mean they fail to throw him a lifeline — and Johnson, who is famous for dithering, may delay so long that time runs out.
Today’s birthdays:
Sir George Troup, New Zealand architect/ engineer/statesman (18631941); Rodolph Wigley, New Zealand businessman (18811946); Jacob Meltzer, New Zealand lawyer/unionist/coroner (18981976); Thelma Kent, New Zealand photographer (18991946); Charles Quentin Fernie Pope, New Zealand writer/journalist/poetry anthologist/war correspondent (19001961); Hone Tuwhare, New Zealand poet (19222008); Ian Ballinger, New Zealand sport shooter (19252008); Neil Ritchie, New Zealand cyclist (19332017); Manfred Mann (Manfred Sepse Lubowitz), British musician (1940); Geoff Boycott, English cricketer (1940); Judith Sheindlin, US television personality (1942); Elizabeth Laird, New Zealand author (1943); Butch Miller, New Zealand professional wrestler (1944); Wybo Veldman, New Zealand rower (1946); Lee Loughnane, US musician (1946); Ian (Inky) Tulloch, New Zealand motorracing driver/politician (1950); Patti Davis, US actress/author
Time is tight, and there are many competing demands on every government’s attention. Almost every country in Europe faces surging Covid19 infections, and the UK Government is already distracted by a growing revolt against its incompetent handling of the pandemic.
The UKEU trade talks will continue, with timeouts for bad behaviour, but they may not make it under the wire.
The endDecember deadline is real.
If there is no agreed trade deal by New Year’s Eve, the immense daily flow of food, medicines, justintime manufacturing components and other goods across the EUUK borders will judder to a halt as customs barriers go up, and it will be a very grim winter in the United Kingdom.
Johnson’s political survival strategy then would be to demonise the EU as treacherous and antiBritish, poisoning the well for any future cooperation. The grownups really need to get their act together, because Johnson isn’t going to. (1952); Trevor Chappell, Australian cricketer (1952); David Campese, Australian rugby union player (1962); Jon Carin, US musician (1964); Darren McClennan, New Zealand footballer (1965); Gavin Lovegrove, New Zealand javelinthrower (1967); Andrew Scott, Irish actor (1976); Will Estes, US actor (1978); Mel Parsons, New Zealand singer/ songwriter (1981); Aaron Tveit, US actor/ singer (1983); Ajaz Patel, New Zealander cricketer (1988); Glen Powell, US actor (1988); Ivana Palezevic, New Zealand actress (1989); Michaela Curtis, New Zealand field hockey player (1993).
Quote of the day:
‘‘Lawyers have to make a living, and can only do so by inducing people to believe that a straight line is crooked.’’ — Alfred Nobel, Swedish businessman, chemist, engineer, inventor and philanthropist, who is known for being the benefactor of the Nobel prizes and the inventor of dynamite. He was born on this day in 1833. He died in 1896, aged 63.
ODT