Nukes give Kim more leverage in diplomacy
SEOUL: North Korea’s Kim Jongun awaits the winner of next week’s US presidential election armed with greater leverage in nuclear diplomacy, thanks to a more powerful and versatile arsenal of weapons than at the start of the Trump presidency.
While Donald Trump boasts of having prevented war and exchanged ‘‘beautiful letters’’ with Kim, he has not wrested a single significant commitment from the North to roll back its weapons programme, Seoul officials and analysts say.
For Kim, Joe Biden poses a more challenging negotiating partner, more likely to pen a ‘‘Dear Jong’’ letter than engage with him in person — even though the bar for summit diplomacy is lower due to the precedent set by Trump.
Pyongyang embarked on an unprecedented series of weapons tests in 2017, declaring itself a nuclear power after undertaking its biggest nuclear blast and longestrange intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches.
After months of tightening sanctions and trading threats, Trump then became the first sitting US president to meet a North Korean leader at a summit in Singapore in 2018.
‘‘Kim Jongun has been doing what he needs to stay in power, and nuclear weapons are the most powerful means of survival,’’ a South Korean official said.
The official called it a ‘‘Trump effect’’ that Biden did not rule out a summit with Kim, even as the Democratic challenger called Kim a ‘‘thug’’ and said a meeting was possible only if Pyongyang rolled back its nuclear capability.
‘‘Whoever wins the election, he has to solve the question of how to derive substantive denuclearisation under an agreed roadmap that clarifies an end state of the programmes,’’ another Seoul official said.
Although the North has largely kept to a moratorium on nuclear and longrange missile tests, it has continued to develop new missiles, as well as engines potentially designed for ICBMs and new mobile launchers, while building its nuclear weaponsgrade stockpile, experts say.
While the US’ far greater military might could swiftly inflict critical damage on North Korea, Pyongyang now poses a threat as its nuclear missiles are capable of striking the US mainland.
Expert assessments of the North’s new multiple rocket launchers and surfacetosurface missiles also rate them highly effective in any conflict on the peninsula.
Days after Kim’s third meeting with Trump last year, the North offered a glimpse of a large submarine, believed to be capable of carrying multiple submarinelaunched ballistic missiles (SLBM). It was seen by military experts as another gamechanger, like the Hwasong15 ICBM in 2017.
A military parade this month highlighted how the North has beefed up its strategic weapons. It featured a new SLBM and a previously unseen ICBM designed to carry multiple warheads.
The display was intended to show Kim could take up negotiations where he had left off with Trump or return to confrontation by resuming advanced weapons tests, Lee Sooseok, of the Institute for National Security Strategy, said.
‘‘Nuclear development isn’t something they can stop doing but if there was some kind of a deal, they might have adjusted its pace and gone more low key, instead of showcasing the ICBM,’’ Lee said.
‘‘Trump might now be regretting not giving whatever halfbaked deal and being unable to sell it as his legacy.’’
Kim has dug in for a long battle. He has let unofficial markets thrive, allowing some breathing room for ordinary people to trade goods and securing funding sources for his pet projects.
‘‘The longer negotiations drag on, the greater North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities grow, but Washington might think they hold the key through sanctions,’’ said Koh Yuhwan, president of the staterun Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.
‘‘Now stakes are higher for both sides, and the game would depend on who can hold out better in the face of threats they pose to each other.’’ — Reuters