University faces $13m deficit as overseas enrolments curbed

AS closed borders continue to curb international student numbers at the University of Otago, a $13 million budget deficit looms for next year.

The University of Otago Council will consider a 2021 budget today that lays out the Covid19 pandemic’s effect on the institution’s bottom line and spells out the need to continue to expand domestic enrolments.

Total income is down $6.8 million from 2020 budgets to $748,550,000 in 2021, and total spending is expected to hit $761,529,000.

The forecast $13 million deficit for next year is $19.4 million less than the budgeted surplus of $6.4 million for this year.

And as the effects of the pandemic unravel, foremost among concerns financially for the school is the expected $17.3 million hole the absence of international students is due to leave in the university’s revenue, the university’s 2021 budget documents said.

The university believes domestic enrolments could underpin its financial recovery, the budget documents said, and included in the budget is increased spending on scholarships and hardship grants.

These increases are in part offset by higher student achievement component funding ($5 million) and domestic tuition fees ($1.6 million).

The number of domestic students at the university is forecast to continue its incremental annual increase.

The university predicted an increase of 148 domestic equivalent fulltime students (EFTs) next year, bringing the total number of domestic students to 17,301 EFTs, or an increase of slightly under 1%.

International student numbers are headed in the other direction.

The 2021 budget shows just 893 international EFTs are expected in 2021, a drop to 52% of the 2020 budget of 1721 international EFTs.

Further, due to the pandemic, only 1322 of the expected 1721 EFTs are considered likely to finish the year at the university this year.

The budget for next year’s international fullfee enrolments is another decrease of 429 EFTs, based on the assumption that borders would remain closed next year.

However, in its calculations, the university is banking on both current Year 13 international secondary school pupils already in the country and uptake of online studies by students overseas, the budget documents said.

After three years of marginal growth in overall student numbers at the institution, this year (1.1%) and next year (1.5%) are due to see total student numbers down.

The university’s roll is budgeted to dip to 18,194 EFTs in 2021.