Tionable among ANC’s presidential contenders
Four ANC insiders said Ramaphosa’s rivals were to varying degrees allied with his predecessor Jacob Zuma’s faction, whose victory would be seen as a setback by investors in Africa’s most industrialised economy. A judicial corruption inquiry pointed to systemic graft during Zuma’s tenure in 200918; he denies wrongdoing.
Zuma’s faction recently captured the party leadership in the ANC strongholds of Mpumalanga and KwazuluNatal, shrinking Ramaphosa’s provincial power base.
Some ANC members also favour deputy president David Mabuza, who has not said he will run but would automatically take over if Ramaphosa is forced out early.
Ramaphosa acted decisively against Covid19 in 2020 — imposing some of the world’s toughest restrictions and expanding social welfare to prevent hunger — but has prevaricated on other contentious policy issues. It took his government over two years to start implementing plans to buy more power from private producers and cut reliance on Eskom, a process fraught with delays.
‘‘He’s caught between paranoia and paralysis. There’s that indecisiveness, lurching from thing to thing,’’ Ebrahim Fakir, of South Africa’s Auwal SocioEconomic Research Institute, said.
Police are probing the origin of millions of dollars worth of foreign banknotes stolen from Ramaphosa’s private farm for tax or exchange control irregularities. He says the funds are from game sales and has welcomed the investigation.
‘‘Ramaphosa is in a very weak position because of this foreign currency found in his house,’’ Moeletsi Mbeki, deputy chairman of the South African Institute of International Affairs and a brother of expresident Thabo Mbeki, said.
‘‘He has to account for why [it] was . . . not in the bank.’’
At the policy conference, Ramaphosa faced down Zuma allies arguing the party should suspend a rule that any officials charged with crimes must step down while they are being investigated.
The ‘‘step aside’’ rule is preventing the ANC’s suspended secretarygeneral Ace Magashule from challenging Ramaphosa after being charged with corruption. But it could come to haunt the president if he himself is charged.
Challengers
Any one of his likely challengers would prompt fears from investors about ‘‘taking South Africa back to a more difficult place’’, Razia Khan, Standard Chartered’s head of research for Africa and the Middle East, said.
Mkhize was suspended a year ago over allegations his department irregularly awarded Covid19related contracts to former associates. He did not respond to a request comment, but denies wrongdoing.
Mabuza has struggled to shrug off allegations — which he denies — of irregular tenders for a 2010 World Cup stadium and links to political killings.
Sisulu supported Zuma throughout the graft inquiry. He ‘‘is a valued and respected leader of the ANC’’, her spokesman said.
Duduzane Zuma — known for his designer suits, partying on speed boats in Dubai and crashing his Porsche into a minibus taxi in 2014 — is being investigated alongside his father for alleged corruption.
‘‘I’ve showed up every time and pleaded not guilty,’’ he said.
‘‘I’m young at heart. If I want to jump on a jet ski or quad bike or a private plane, that shouldn’t be an issue. I’ve worked hard.’’
If the ANC loses its parliamentary majority, it could force the party into an uneasy coalition. Several conference delegates told Reuters they still saw Ramaphosa as their best bet.
‘‘I don’t see any other person who can rival him,’’ Home Affairs Minister Aaron Motsoaledi said. Some analysts agree. ‘‘Removing Ramaphosa would be a suicide mission. He is what has slowed down their decline,’’ author and political analyst Ralph Mathekga said.
‘‘He’s the most electable, and . . . can help the party to survive.’’ — Reuters