Ardern’s promise of a summer of certainty off to a shaky start

IT was not all bad news for the Government this week as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern tried to push the reset button — yet again — after a long and dire winter.

Spring had actually arrived, the All Blacks beat Australia thanks to a bit of help from a French referee, and we missed a recession with economic growth of 1.7%.

The darling buds of September arrived meteorologically and economically.

The Government started the week trying to ensure it also arrived politically — with a bit of a spring clean to rid itself of the cobwebs of Covid.

Most normal business in Parliament was put on hold as a result of the death of the Queen last Friday, but Cabinet decided to push ahead with its plan to meet to dump the Covid19 restrictions.

That was partly because Ardern was due to be out of the country and wanted to front it herself, and partly because the cat was out of the bag anyway, courtesy of coverage beforehand.

It did mean that Ardern herself could not sell the reset to the public: she had to leave the next day for the Queen’s funeral.

In setting out the decision to dump the traffic lights and almost all restrictions, Ardern used an interesting choice of phrase, saying ‘‘we take back control’’.

She also meant the Government wanted to take back control — it was a bid to start again with a fresh slate — one on which the word Covid could barely be read.

The Government too now has to move from a siege setting to a more optimistic one.

That will be easier said than done. Two polls out this week reinforced why the Government is so keen to try to secure its own spring.

The Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll and Talbot Mills poll showed further slips of support for Labour — and a slight rallying for National.

Ongoing bad polling has a corrosive effect on morale in a caucus.

Within Labour, they are not yet panicking but some are now almost resigned to being in Opposition after 2023 — or at least realistic about it.

Some are turning their heads to the question of retiring, and there is also quiet consideration being given to which MPs will be needed most to stick around for the ‘‘rebuild’’ as one put in, in Opposition.

That is wise — Labour will not want to reenter the cycle it went through from 2008 to 2017, and the National has also gone through from 2017 until now: in which the first term delivers it a robust, sizable caucus but it squanders it rapidly through a mix of disillusionment, internal fighting and illdiscipline.

Neither Ardern nor Robertson will be there if they go back into Opposition — but both went through the 2008 to 2017 period and it left scars. They probably still have nightmares about it — and will need to ensure those who do stay are well prepared for what is to come.

Their first job, however, is to stop that happening at all by winning in 2023.

Trembly polling also turns governments into tentative creatures — and that can be counterproductive.

Ardern’s initial rallying cry in 2017 was of delivering transformation.

Covid19 has stymied it, as have ongoing problems in the Government’s ability to deliver on its promises and ongoing resistance to some of its reforms.

That also explains why Ardern has absolutely no appetite for starting a debate on republicanism.

When Ardern was the new Labour leader in Opposition in 2017, she said it was discussion that needed to be held and should be held. That has changed now she is prime minister.

It would certainly be transformational and a legacy item in the event it stood a chance of success.

But it probably would not succeed right now. The last thing she wants is to open the motherlode of the cogovernance debate that her government is already struggling with in microcosm forms.

More importantly, it would be seen as an unnecessary distraction from bread and butter issues that should rightly dominate the government agenda: the mopup after Covid on the cost of living, worker shortages, and backlogs in areas such as health, justice and anywhere else you look.

She won’t suffer from holding back from that debate because her appetite for it mirrors that of many New Zealanders.

The dropping of all Covid restrictions — and Ardern’s promise of a summer of certainty — was aimed at making this a pretty good news week for the Government.

It coincided with statistics showing international traveller numbers had quickly risen back to half of the preCovid numbers, and Queenstown reporting its ski season business was back to 80%.

Then came the nudge up in GDP, growing by 1.7% — another green shoot, albeit it of cold comfort compared to the larger inflation numbers.

The Government can rarely point to a good news week these days, even when it goes out of its way to engineer them.

The best it has been able to hope for are weeks that are not all bad news.

It got that this week but even while sounding optimism about the summer ahead, Robertson was also sounding caution about the many weeks ahead.

A speech Ardern was due to give to try to pitch forward to a summer of hope was instead delivered by Robertson.

It started with a quote from The Art of War: ‘‘In the midst of chaos there is always opportunity’’.

He then went through the slightly terrifying outlook globally: the energy crises, the rocketing inflation in the UK and the US, fears it would become entrenched.

He noted New Zealand was still solid but warned ‘‘tough choices may be required as we navigate our way through a volatile and uncertain global environment’’.

And there was a sign that the weeks are now feeling a lot longer to Ardern.

In the UK, she spoke of the Queen, saying she would never understand how the Queen could give her whole life to public duty. She added that she had served as prime minister for just five years ‘‘and to give her entire life, that to me is sacrifice’’.

She said it as if even that five years had felt like a lifetime. At times, it probably has.