What’s resonating and what’s not
IT’S much too early in the term for the coalition to be truly worried about the latest poll, but it should also be much too early for the public to consider turfing it out.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will be alert to the factors driving the dire polling but won’t be waving the white flag just yet.
The 1NewsVerian poll on Monday night had National down two points to 36%, Act down 1 point to 7% and New Zealand First out of Parliament altogether, falling under the 5% threshold on just 4.2%.
That would give National and Act 57 seats, not enough to hold the government benches.
On the other side of the House, Labour was up two points to 30%. The Greens went up two as well, hitting 14%, and Te Pati ¯ Maori ¯ was steady on 4%.
Assuming Te Pati ¯ Maori ¯ gave its support to Labour and the Greens, the Leftbloc would have the numbers to govern.
It is only four or five points of movement, with a margin of error +/3.1 percentage points, but all going in the Opposition’s direction.
Just five months into the coalition’s programme of change that will have Mr Luxon and his kitchen Cabinet pondering which bits are resonating and which programmes might be putting people off. Part of the problem is that so much of the coalition’s work so far has been cuts and repeals. It creates a negative framing and makes it hard to sell a positive story.
Many of the cuts and repeals had been signalled, along with controversial work like fasttracking big infrastructure projects, but other changes are burning some of Mr Luxon’s political capital, like the repealing of smokefree legislation and cuts to lunch in schools.
While Mr Luxon told Morning Report he had no plans to shy away from tough decisions to turn the economy around, Act leader David Seymour appeared more concerned by the poll, given he penned a letter to supporters last night entitled ‘‘Labour could be back in 2026’’. While optimism was down three points to 36%, pessimism was up seven points to 26%.
All eyes are now on the Budget in just a month’s time and what is, or more importantly isn’t, in it.
The coalition is pinning a lot on its vaunted tax cuts, but it’s not clear voters are as bothered about the tax cuts as much as some in the government are suggesting.
Certainly in conversations with industry and business leaders, and everyday Kiwis in regional New Zealand, tax cuts very rarely come up in conversation.
What will be more telling in the Budget are the programmes that are cut to create more fiscal headroom for that tax relief.
Mr Luxon has already had to walk back his categorical assurance to RNZ on Monday night that all programmes in the Budget will be fully funded over four years.
The Prime Minister has been highly critical of Labour’s ‘‘fiscal cliffs’’ and timelimited funding it left for the coalition, but Mr Luxon conceded on Morning Report on Tuesday there will be some timelimited funding.
While it’s better to clear that up now, he shouldn’t have put himself in that position in the first place. — RNZ