Collins safe as leader of National Party — for now
Mention of the election to the National Party is akin to mentioning the super over of the Cricket World Cup in 2019. It is
still too soon.
The last day of Parliament is traditionally a time for a bit of joviality, so Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson delivered his usual roast of his rivals, the National Party.
Itcamein the form of imaginary real estate listings of formermp Paula Bennett, whonowworks for Bayley’s real estate.
“The Blue family are looking to downsize,” Robertson read from his imaginary listing.
“After having one careful owner for nine years and then a series of bad short-term tenants, the Blue family house is a renovator’s dream: tired, with a bland colour scheme.”
National’s leader Collins responded to his dig about the National Party’s leadership carousel and election result by having adig at Robertson over Labour’sownhousing policies.
It takes a fair bit tomake the National Party laugh these days. Robertson, whosuffered nine long years in Opposition himself, knowsthat.
Mention of the election to the National Party is akin to mentioning the super over of the Cricket World Cupin 2019. It is still too soon.
The poll results were very similar to the election results. Whenvoters cast their votes, they did notknow the exact result those votes would deliver.
But the poll wasessentially an endorsement of that election result: from the disappearance ofnzfirst to Labour being able to govern alone.
Nor had Labour done anything with that power since then to peeve those voters off.
There was no sign of dissatisfaction about Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s decision to include the Green Party in the government, albeit outside Cabinet.
Oneof the theories of the 2020 election result was that National Party voters supported Labour in a bid to ensure the Green Party did not have toomuchinfluence.
The poll rather dispels that as any strong factor in the election result. In short, voters supported Ardern because she deserved it and because National was in a state of ruin.
The poll showedlittle has happened since to change that view of National.
In a recent end-of-year interview with Newstalk ZB, Ardernwas asked about her statement during the campaign that if she lost the election she would resign.
Ardern said it washer belief that if a leader did not deliver an election win they should step aside to give somebodyelse a go.
Ardernwas not intending it as a jab at her rival, National Party leader Judith Collins.
But the latest Colmar Brunton poll indicatedmanyvoters feel thesame way.
Collins’ rating as “preferred Prime Minister” had dropped from 20 to 12 per cent.
The only relief for Collins in the pollwas that, as yet, there is no clear (or at least ready) contender to succeed her.
Collins and someothers in National have convinced themselves further leadership changes will only destabilise the party further.
That is only true if the successor is the wrong person.
In being certain of that, the polls do matter. The greatest attention is onnewcomerchristopher Luxon, whogot 2 per cent support in the poll.
Luxon’s ratings will almost inevitably grow— it iswhere Ardern too started.
But there is no imminent danger to Collins. Anyredemption of Simon Bridges seems unlikely— hewas on just 1 per cent.
However, National’s pack of 33 Mpswillnowdisappear for a couple of months.
There will besome“reflection”. Reflectionmayormaynot be a synonymfor “plotting”.
The National Party’s review team will also report back on its findings early in thenewyear, and thatmay not help Collins.
Onthursday, Collins delivered herownperception of the election campaign at Victoria University’s regular post-election review seminar.
As well as leaks and blunders, Collins blamed the campaign team and “themes” she inherited from Toddmuller’s very short time as leader, saying she had stuck with it given the short run-up to the election.
Someonewithin National later suggested it could be called her “alternate reality” address.
Those around at the time said Collins had held ameeting to say she intended to do things“myway”, and rubbishedmuchof the plan set upfor the Muller campaign.
It is likely Collins wasreferring to the themes on National’s billboards, including “strong team” and “better economy”, which weremadea mockery of National’s ructions.
However, if Collinswas unhappy with things she had the power and licence to change it.
Robertson’s parody of real estate listings had a prediction about the newyear for National: “A recently arrived tenant has flown in saying hemaywant tomakean offer fairly early in thenewyear. So watch this space.”