Well it’s now seeming like a wet Christmas .
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We could be in line for wet weather just before Christmas if the latest forecast is to be believed.
The first tropical cyclone has formed overnight in the southwest Pacific and some models have it tracking directly on to New Zealand just before December 25.
Niwa forecasters say Cyclone Yasa is lying between Vanuatu and Fiji.
Weatherwatch.co.nz says it will spend the next few days spinning around in a giant circle gaining strength. It is expected to go from a category 1 storm to category 3 by the time it brushes past Fiji tomorrow.
While Fijians are being put on alert, Weatherwatch says modelling from various agencies show a 40 per cent confidence Yasa could make it to New Zealand around a week from now. One scenario has the potentially destructive cyclone off Northland and veering down on to the top of the country on Monday.
Weatherwatch has about 40 per cent confidence this low will make it to New Zealand, probably one week from now. “However, the storm will be going through a major structural change which means a number of future scenarios are possible from a serious major hit, to a weak low that only brings some rain, to one that falls apart and misses NZ entirely.”
In October Niwa warned we faced slightly higher odds of experiencing an ex-tropical cyclone over the next six months, on the back of warmer seas and a building La Nina climate system. Each season — usually around late summer — at least one of these wild systems brings high winds and heavy rain to our shores.
— NZ Herald