Brexit has set the European Union free at last
The goal of ‘ever closer union’, anathema to
English exceptionalists, is back on the agenda.
Blaming the victims is never a good look. As Britain finally leaves the European Union, 1651 days after the Brexit referendumof 2016, weshould try to remember that 48 per cent of the turkeys didn’t vote for Christmas.
Brexit wasnot exactly anational act of self-harm; itwas really an attack by the nostalgic and nationalist old on the young. Sixty per cent of British over-65s voted to leave the EU, but 61 per cent of the under-35s voted to remain. Having had four years to think it over, most Britishnowthink itwas amistake— by a 48-39majority, according to ayougovpoll in October.
Too late. Boris Johnson is Prime Minister and he dares not anger the English ultra-nationalists on the right of hisown Conservative party. Aftermonths of the amateur dramatics that accompany any Johnson decision, on Christmasdaythe United Kingdomconcluded a pathetically thin “free trade” deal that reflects the real balance of power between theeu and the UK.
Johnson will smear lipstick all over this pig of adeal and declare it a triumph. Thosewhowant to believe it will do so and the only early evidence of the huge defeat that it really is will be some delays at the ports as customs officers learn their newjobs.
The real bill will come in later and almost invisibly, in lost trade, investment and opportunities.
The last official British Government estimate was that 15 years fromnow, the British economy will be between 5 per cent and 7 per cent smaller than it would have been as aneumember (but still a bit bigger than it is now).
That’s not the rawmaterial for a counter-revolution— andbesides, any projection about the economic situation in 2035 is really pure guesstimate. Onecovid more or less could make just asmuch difference as Brexit.
All one can say is that the British economy will not “prospermightily” outside the EU, as Johnson promised but it won’t collapse either. And then, in due course, the younger, proEubrits will become themajority, thanks to themagic of generational turnover.
But until then, if Britain comes knocking at the EU’S door asking to be allowed back in, Brussels should say “no”.
Whatreally happened on December 31 is that the European Union wasfinally freed to develop in thewaythat its othermajormembers clearly want. The goal of “ever closer union”, anathema to English exceptionalists, is back on the agenda.
There is ambivalence in every member country about the idea of creating a semi-federal European super-state but, in aworld where democracy and the rule of law are under siege, most people can see the need to strengthen the European Union. Last July the EU’S leaders took ahuge step in that direction: for the first time they agreed to borrow collectively on the financialmarkets.
France and Germany were all for it and Italy and Spain needed the money to finance a trillion-euro aid programme to help themthrough the coronavirus crisis. Those four countriesnowcontainmore than half the EU’S population and they outvoted the “frugal four” (the Netherlands, Austria, Swedenanddenmark) that opposed taking on debt to support “feckless” Mediterranean members.
If Britain had still been amember, it would have vetoed themeasure because it infringed on the UK’S sacred “sovereignty’.
French President Charles de Gaulle, whovetoed British membership applications twice in the 1960s, wasright: England does not have a “European vocation” and it should not be allowed in.
The financial precedent thatwas set in July opens the door to a future Euthat actsmuchmore like a state.
Even a common defence budget isnowwithin reach— not something vital inmilitary terms but a European army would be ahugely important symbol of unity.
The United Statesmay be back soon but the world could certainly use a second powerful advocate for democracy and the rule of law. Brexit may be giving us just that by freeing theeutomove on— andweshould be grateful.