Mare’s shot at victory
Achange of plan looks set to see superstar New Zealand mare Probabeel tackle the A$5 million All-star Mile. And if she heads that way she could become our best winning chance in the short history of the race.
Training sensation Jamie Richards has confirmed Probabeel is now being aimed at the All-star Mile at The Valley in Melbourne on March 13 rather than a return Sydney campaign.
Probabeel had been expected to headline the Richards’s team for the Sydney autumn carnivals but Richards is stoked owners Brendan and Jo Lindsay are now keen on the new Victorian race.
“So her new plan is to trial here (Matamata) next week then head to Melbourne and have a 1200m and 1400m before hopefully the All-star,” Richards told the Herald.
Getting into the All-star Mile is rarely guaranteed but Probabeel profiles perfectly to make the cut.
Nominations for the race, which was first held in 2019, close nextmondayand then there is a month of public voting to select the first 10 horses invited so with New Zealanders allowed to vote horses like Probabeel and Aegon, if his connections choose to go down that path, will get good support.
Probabeel is also hugely popular in Australia where she won the group one Epsom over the 1600m at Randwick on October 3 so even if by some oddity she wasn’t in the 10 automatically voted in her Epsom win would all but guarantee her one of the wildcard entries.
Probabeel has raced at The Valley before and was seventh in the Cox Plate in October when not suited by the wet track or the 2040m but was still in contention in the great race at the top of the straight so ticks plenty of boxes for the All-star.
“The weather in March in Melbourne
tends to be better too and the mile is probably her go so I am really glad she is going to the race,” says Richards, who trained Melody Belle to finish third in the All-star last season.
Probabeel was rated a $13 chance with the TAB ($15 in Australia) for the All-star before news of her campaign became public.
While as a genuine group one miler being set for the race she looks an overs bet, Richards has a huge punting warning for punters around two of our biggest staying races.
After her win in the City Of Auckland Cup at Ellerslie last Friday his mare Savy Yong Blonk is favourite for both the Wellington and Auckland Cups but will start in neither.
“She has gone for a short spell and definitely won’t start in either of those Cups,” says Richards.
“It is a good time to give her a break
and she will come back for a fillies and mares mile at the Auckland Cup carnival.”
That is the Royal Descent Stakes in which Save Yong Blonk beat Media Sensation last season, with Richards to make his autumn plans for the mare after that this season. Many of his other market leaders are on target for their goals with Brando heading to the Levin Classic on Saturday week, Avantage the $1.60 favourite for the Telegraph the same day and Melody Belle to trial at Matamata next week on her way to the Thorndon Mile at Trentham on January 30.
But another market anomaly is Brando being the second favourite behind Melody Belle for the Herbie Dyke at Te Rapa on February 13, with that 2000m weight-for-age races highly unlikely to be on his calendar, especially if Melody Belle heads there. — Nzherald