Angry Trump still has finger on nuclear button
The ultimate entertainerwas always going to provide an excellent last act. Thelast episode is falling somewherebetween Richard III, Veep and The Bunker. The Good Wife is in the background. To helpwith the viewing, Ihave the three main plot lines for the final days of Trump: Season 1.
Theme1: Impeachmentand further violence Vice-presidentmike Pence appears unwilling to try to topple Donald Trumpvia the 25thamendment, exiting the President becausehe is unfit. Although this meanstrumpwill completehis term, Pence hasupset sometrumpsupporters becausehe played by the rules in certifying the election result for Biden. Despite the threat of the noose from a minority in hisownparty, thisnimble footwork meansthemajority will have just ticked Pence as the Republican front runner for the next election.
As the 25thamendmentwill not be invoked, this leaves Democrats only one option to poketrumpinthe eye one last time: impeachment. The laying of this charge is an attack on the legacy of the President. It will achievenothing else as it has neither the timenor the numbers inthe Senate to havetrumppushed from
Office inthe little time that remains.
Thiswillmakegreat theatre, as although it will not unseat the President it will inflame his supporters. Therisk of actions of violence, of lone wolves, small cells of terrorists, or orchestrated masses, should not be underestimated. If their leader is charged with insurrection, they mayfeel impelled to delivermayhemas these chargeswill fulfil their fear that they, and their leader, are being persecuted.
This is not to suggest that he, like otherswho tried to undermine the electoral process, should not be brought to account. Theyshould, but with measured words, balanced types of charges and independent processes. It isunknown whether such cool heads can prevail, as the provocations on onehand, and thedesire for retribution onthe other, build.
Theme2: Pardons
Trying to pin responsibility for the riot directlyontrumpwould bedifficult, as he hasmadean art of creating distance between his words and the actions of others. With the current riot — andthen linking that to an insurrection— while Trump’swords were leading (and his taunts that a
“fraud” was committed, the election was“stolen” and itwasall sold through “fake news”), itwasmuch morethe words of his son Donald Jr and his lawyer, Rudolph Giuliani, that are closer to incitement. Donald Jr threatened the pro-trump supporters if they did not turn up, “we’re coming for you”. He later referred to large protests that “burn it all down” as doing it right. Giuliani called for “trial by combat” and “we are going to fight to the very end”. Michael Flynnwas another flywheel in this machine, retweeting messages calling for limited martial law and fighting for Trump.
Flynn, unlike the others, already has his incredibly wide-ranging presidential pardon, for “any and all possible offences”. Donald Jr and Giuliani, andmanyothertrump supporters, do not have such a “get out of jail free” card in their back pocket. Nor does thepresident. This suggests that themagic sheet of pardons is probably being prepared. The Presidentmay even include himself. Although theconstitution does not say self-pardon is possible, it does not say it is impossible. All former Presidents have seen this anomaly as a red light, as to pardon oneself is to place oneself above the law: and this is the very type of absolutism that theamerican Republic originally fought against.
Theme3: War
Although the biggest threat America faces is from internal, not external risks, the latter still needs to be considered. This is the nightmare scenario, where the theme of the last episode goes from House ofcards to Kiefer Sutherland in 24 or Designated Survivor, or both. While an extremely unlikely outcome, (as nuclear war would be bad fortrump’s golf courses and anychance of the Trump: Season 2 cycling back infour years) it will be in the background of the final days.
This backdrop is because although Trumphas lost control of any domestic legislative initiatives, he still maintainsmaximumautonomy in foreign policy.
The broad division here is between offensive anddefensive types of war. Offensivewars require the consent of Congress. Defensive wars do not. The bottom line is that for any country with anaxe to grind againstamerica, this would be a very, very bad time to cause trouble, as anangry
President in the last hours of his power, still has his finger onthe nuclear button.