Putin’s veiled threat to old Soviet states
Going pro-west not a friendly option for neighbour nations
Former Soviet countries are part of Russia’s domain and risk Ukraine’s fate if they go up against the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin has insinuated. The Russian president made the remarks while on stage with Kazakhstan’s leader, with experts interpreting them as a “clear threat” against the neighbouring country.
His comments were in response to Kassym-jomart Tokayev saying on live TV at an economic forum in St Petersburg on Friday that he did not recognise two pro-russian rebel regions in the Donbas.
Putin sat still, sucking in his lips before hitting back: “What is the Soviet Union? This is historic Russia.”
He calmly praised Kazakhstan as a brotherly nation before adding a thinly-veiled threat: “The same thing could have happened with Ukraine, absolutely, but they wouldn’t be our allies.”
One observer based in Nur-sultan, the Kazakh capital, said Tokayev had “humiliated Putin in front of his supporters” adding: “He’s making him aware that Kazakhstan may be Russia’s next prey.”
Another commentator, based in Almaty, said: “He’s saying if you are good neighbours, that’s fine. But if you step out of line and go pro-west, we can conquer your land because it is ours.”
Maximilian Hess, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said Tokayev was especially vulnerable because he had relied on Putin’s support in January to defeat rivals in a fight for power in Kazakhstan.
“This is a clear threat,” he said of Putin’s comments. “Tokayev has no power base domestically and knows since January he is dependent on Putin.”
Other Kazakh analysts were more sceptical, saying Tokayev would only have stood up to Putin over Ukraine
He’s making him
aware that Kazakhstan may be Russia’s next prey.
Nur-sultan observer
if it was worth the risk and that a Russian invasion of Kazakhstan was unlikely.
“Kazakhstan is already firmly rooted in the Russian domain of influence. Putin doesn’t need to reimpose the borders of the USSR to control it,” said Dimash Alzhanov, a Kazakh political analyst.
However, viewed from northern Kazakhstan, an invasion does not feel like an abstract concept.
“It’s a very real fear and it would be easy for Russia,” said Viktor, the owner of a curtain shop in Uralsk, a city of about 300,000 people lying 72km from the border with Russia.
“People’s views are stronger now and they don’t talk to each other,” he said. “The Russian propaganda now is so strong. Russians here have their heads and their hearts over the border with Putin.”
Uralsk used to mark the edge of Russia’s Tsarist empire. Roughly a third of the population is Russian, a common character of towns in north Kazakhstan, although most of the country is predominantly ethnic Kazakh.
Kazakhstan is a mineral-rich country. Many of its metal and rare earth deposits lie in the north of the country. One of its largest oil and gas projects, Karachaganak — in which Shell is a shareholder — is near Uralsk.
The Kazakh army is poor and no match for Russia’s, even in a weakened state.
Kremlin hawks have been circling and threatening the country. Last month, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, accused Kazakhstan of hosting US biological laboratories which may be used for building weapons, an accusation he lobs at Ukraine and Georgia, Russia’s foes.
Meanwhile the UK’S Sun newspaper reported Britain’s top general has told every soldier to prepare to fight Russia in a potential World War III. General Sir Patrick Sanders, the new Army commander, said Putin’s bloodbath assault on Ukraine had rocked the foundations of global security. “There is now a burning imperative to forge an Army capable of fighting alongside our allies and defeating Russia in battle.” — Agencies