More waves of Covid
Data shows Covid cases equal to one in four Lakes people
ACovid modelling expert has issued a stark warning of more virus waves as data shows 41 people have died after testing positive for Covid-19 in the Lakes area, since the pandemic began.
According to recent Ministry of Health data, since the beginning of the pandemic there have been 31,130 cases of Covid-19 in Te Whatu Ora — Lakes area, equivalent to about 25 per cent of the population.
All but 37 of those were in the past eight months.
Meanwhile, the national hospitalisation rate has increased 28 per cent in the past week. One in every 20 people reporting to a hospital has Covid-19.
Nationally, there have been more than 1.5 million cases of Covid-19 recorded to date and 1784 Kiwis have died within 28 days of being reported as Covid-19 cases.
Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank pleaded with the public to remember “the fundamentals”: Test, report and isolate.
“It’s important to think of other people,” Plank said.
“Some people are going to die from this virus, others are going to be seriously ill.
“There will be more waves largely caused by new variants.”
This week outgoing director general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield estimated half of all positive Covid19 cases were going unreported, based on public surveillance testing including wastewater results.
“There is still a global pandemic,” Bloomfield said.
“We’re not out of the woods yet.” Bloomfield reported cases were increasing across all regions while the hospitalisation rate had gone up by 28 per cent in the past week.
Plank said hospitalisation numbers were already higher than they were at the peak of the first Omicron wave in March.
Recent rule updates mean people who develop new Covid-19 symptoms 29 days or more since their last are considered reinfected and have to isolate again.
According to the Ministry of Health website, reinfection will become more likely as new variants spread.
Rotorua resident Mary Dallas, 82, initially experienced long Covid symptoms after catching the virus in February.
These have worsened after being reinfected on April 29.
“I have always eaten healthily, been a very fit person and exercised regularly. I used to be able to do 10 push-ups, five sit-ups and walk up and down the stairs 10 times every day, but since I caught Covid a second time, I have felt physically weak, fatigued and often get brain fog.
“I may be 82 but I used to feel as fit as a 40-year-old and three months ago I was up on my roof doing repairs and painting the house, now I don’t get out of bed until lunchtime and struggled to do even two push-ups or walk up and down the stairs even once a day.
“My immune system has been really knocked around and my whole life is different in terms of my usual routines and what I am physically able to manage.”
Dallas said she believed more needed to be done to find a cure for people with long Covid symptoms.
She said she was slowly getting better but feared what would happen if she caught Covid a third time.
Yet despite catching Covid twice, Dallas said she does not believe masking wearing or antiviral vaccinations should be mandated by the government, especially not for children and babies.
“When I go out I’m double-masked but it doesn’t worry me if other people around me are demasked.
“If they want to take the risk of catching Covid that’s their choice. I believe in freedom of speech and freedom of choice and government mandates take that choice away from us.”
Dallas said she caught Covid twice despite being double-vaccinated and receiving one booster shot but would not get a second booster shot.
“I’ll never allow anyone to put another needle in me unless it’s a penicillin injection for some other condition.”
The Omicron variant arrived in New Zealand in December. The first wave of infections reached a national peak on February 25 with more than 24,000 new cases recorded on that day.
In the Te Whatu Ora — Lakes area new Covid-19 cases peaked at 661 on March 7.
“The first wave was concentrated in people in their 20s and 30s. What we’re seeing now is people aged 70 and older,” Plank said.
According to Plank, the current case numbers for this older demographic were more than double what they had been in March.
If this trend continued, he expected to see hospitalisations rise accordingly.
In response to Bloomfield’s estimate of unreported cases, Plank said: “No one really knows the number of infections being missed.”
He said it was important for people to test and report their results as