Variants predicted
modellers used that information to understand immunity levels.
University of Otago professor of public health Michael Baker said the Covid-19 pandemic was “shining a light” on the complexity of ensuring the validity of health data.
“It is likely that reporting of Covid19 deaths will continue to underestimate numbers,” Baker said.
“Covid-19 infection can cause death from heart attacks and strokes and other causes that may not be attributed to this condition.”
Baker cited influenza as an example.
“Only about 5 per cent of deaths linked to influenza have this infection recorded as the cause of death.
“This problem is partly because of the way that mortality reporting focuses on the underlying cause of death, so tends to default to any major chronic illnesses that a patient had, rather than acute infections that contributed to their death at that time.”
Baker welcomed Bloomfield’s announcement of a new reporting system which showed the virus was an underlying or contributing factor to somewhere between two-thirds and
three-quarters of deaths after a Covid19 infection.
“This change will therefore increase the confidence we have that deaths attributed to Covid-19 are valid.
“I am pleased to see that all of our
Covid-19 mortality data will be revised to incorporate this change, including current and previously reported numbers.”
Last week, Covid-19 Response Minister Ayesha Verrall announced the Government’s rollout of additional health measures to help tackle the second Omicron wave and record levels of flu.
“There’s no question the combination of a spike in Covid-19 cases and hospitalisations, the worst flu season in recent memory and corresponding staff absences are putting health workers and the whole health system under extreme pressure,” Verrall said at the time.
“Our modelling suggests we’re at the beginning of a second Omicron wave that could be bigger than the first, with the more transmissible BA.5 variant becoming the dominant strain in the community.
“There has been a significant increase in cases over the past two weeks, and worryingly the biggest jump is in cases among New Zealanders aged 65 and over. That, in turn, has led to an increase in hospital occupancy.”
Plank said case numbers had slowed since Verrall’s announcement but he couldn’t say why.
“It’s a bit early to say for sure and school holidays could be affecting case numbers. The slightly optimistic [interpretation] is that the peak will not be as big as it was in March.”