Apocalypse cow: Grim reality of a foot and mouth outbreak
Disease capable of decimating NZ’S rural economy
An outbreak of foot and mouth disease in New Zealand would push up world commodity prices, lower the exchange rate and threaten more than 80,000 jobs, quite aside from the loss of billions in national income.
With border biosecurity and the agriculture sector on higher alert after an outbreak of the lethal clovenhoofed animal disease in Indonesia, a popular visitor destination for Kiwis, a Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) report sheets home the grim economic outlook if foot and mouth disease (FMD) was found here for the first time.
The 2014 report, which included modelling of potential macroeconomic impacts by the NZ Institute of Economic Research of a large hypothetical FMD outbreak in 2011, concluded the net present value loss in real GDP in the eight years from 2012 to 2020 was estimated at $16.2 billion.
In addition there would be eradication costs of $1.16b and compensation costs of $31m.
Julie Mcdade, the business development manager and a qualified vet at one of New Zealand’s biggest processors, Greenlea Premier Meats, believes there is a solid base of FMD knowledge among the country’s vets, even though there’s never been an incursion of the disease.
Mcdade has seen and worked with FMD in Nepal, where it is endemic.
She was part of an Mpi-organised vet visit there, as a meat industry representative.
She said there was a wide range of vets on the visit from clinical and rural specialists to industry and Government vets, and noted that MPI has organised “numerous” of these experiences for New Zealanders.
“There is certainly a base of knowledge and there will be vets here who have overseas experience of it, for example in the UK.”
Mcdade said an FMD outbreak would be “a major logistical event”.
FMD is not a new threat to New Zealand. It is endemic in parts of the world and the country has long had strict biosecurity safeguards for it.
However as Mcdade notes, the chances of a Kiwi visiting a subsidence-level farm in rural Nepal are slim, whereas Indonesia is a popular tourist destination.
“The other scenario that’s more risky is someone bringing in meat products. (Even then) that meat would need to be fed to a pig. That’s the worst case scenario, because pigs are foot and mouth factories. They produce so much more virus than a cow, sheep or goat.”
And New Zealand’s so-far successful, world-first eradication of the cattle disease mycoplasma bovis is no comfort in an FMD threat.
“It’s a very different disease and the approach is quite different. Mycoplasma bovis is endemic pretty much everywhere and it doesn’t lead to an immediate shutdown of animal industries which FMD would.
It doesn’t have the devastating effect on exports.
“The minute FMD is detected everything grinds to a halt.” Mcdade’s boss, Greenlea managing director Tony Egan said while the FMD risk had always been there from overseas countries, the proximity of Indonesia and its tourism popularity made the current situation “very concerning”.
Greenlea had upped its precautions by raising awareness of the risk among farmers and staff visiting farms but “in an industry context”.