Who will be the perfect 10?
The Six Nations Championship has emphasised just how important the number 10 will be in determining this year’s winner of the World Cup. In almost every game of the northern hemisphere beano the first-five, for good or evil, has been markedly the most influential player on the pitch.
World Cup year is always a time of flux. The All Blacks had to evolve pretty quickly going into the previous World Cup when Aaron Cruden ruptured his ACL in a Super Rugby game in April, 2015. It now seems almost forgotten that Cruden, who had never lost a match as New Zealand’s starting 10, was going to be the All Blacks playmaker at that year’s World Cup.
At the time Steve Hansen described Cruden as ‘‘a key member of our team.’’
So let’s not take it for granted that Beauden Barrett will the All Blacks starter in Tokyo. At each of the previous World Cups the All Blacks have played the knockout stages without their first-choice 10 from the start of the year. There will be some nervous months ahead. There always are.
But the big difference between now and 2015 lies in the depth. Four years ago Cruden was at the Chiefs, Dan Carter was at the Crusaders, Barrett was at Wellington and Lima Sopoaga was at the Highlanders. Each of the four was pushing the others on. Each would have walked into almost any other international side.
This season Barrett is still at the Canes and Richie Mo’unga will once again drive the Crusaders’ success. But where is the rest of the back-up? Many people still doubt that Damian McKenzie is a genuine starting 10 for the Chiefs, while the Highlanders and the Blues are without a proven all-round playmaker.
When you look at the list of 10s who have won World Cups (Grant Fox, Michael Lynagh, Joel Stransky, Stephen Larkham, Jonny Wilkinson, Butch James, Aaron Cruden and Dan Carter) you are struck by several similarities, particularly as the game headed into the professional era.
They are nearly all superb tactical kickers, they are nearly all superb defenders and they are nearly all superb distributors. In each category you could probably nit-pick a couple of exceptions, but they were players who could control territory, make space for their teammates and stop the opposition.
Is that the case in New Zealand this year? There are certainly a few around the world who seem to fit the bill. It is a rich time for international 10’s which is one good reason why this World Cup may turn out to be a good deal more fascinating and competitive than the previous two, when the All Blacks were clearly superior to the opposition.
Owen Farrell now ticks all the above boxes. We already knew he was a good 10, but at this
Six Nations he has gone to another level. Sole captaincy seems to be suiting him. It seems to be holding back the hothead who can be guilty of high and late hits, and emphasising Farrell’s ability to control games.
Jamie George, who is Farrell’s team-mate at Saracens, as well as England, said: ‘‘The bloke’s a genius. I never see him have a bad game and that’s why he’s one of the best players in the world, if not the best player in the world. In my eyes, it’s amazing to be playing with a flyhalf and captain who is as dominant as he is and who leads from the front in the way that he does.’’
Well there are a few candidates for that ‘best player’ title, not least Barrett, who has won before. But although George might be somewhat rosy-eyed, he makes one good point. Farrell does not seem to have bad games. Barrett does. It remains a slight, nagging worry.
But there are plenty of other contenders for the global 10 shirt. Johnny Sexton, the 2018 player of the year, has been the Lions first choice for the last couple of tours and he has a superb record against New Zealand. To stop Ireland, you have to stop Sexton, something the All Blacks have struggled to do.
England managed it in Dublin this year. They shut down Sexton’s space and they took out the loops and the ball out the back which he so likes to run. England also hit him hard, very hard. Sexton is brave, but at the age of 33, he is starting to feel it. He had to leave the field in the following match against Scotland, and Ireland looked half the team without him.
Scotland also have a fine 10 in Finn Russell, although if one were going to be super critical, you might call him a poor man’s Barrett. At his best he is almost unplayable, but the tactical levers sometimes come apart in his hands.
The other global team with a 10 who fits the World Cup profile is Handre Pollard, of South Africa. He has won a junior World Cup and is just starting to look again like the player he was before knee and ankle injuries wrecked his 2016 and 2017 seasons. South Africa will be praying that Pollard survives intact to the World Cup.
England, Ireland and South Africa are looming as threats to the All Blacks for many reasons, but they are reliant on their first-choice 10 staying healthy. The other countries who could and should be a threat seem more confused about the key position.
Wales are on a roll, but they keep changing their 10. In their past 14 matches Gareth Anscombe has started six and Dan Biggar and Rhys Patchell have started four. Anscombe was poor in the first half against France and his wayward kicking should have cost Wales the game. But against Italy, Biggar also went to pieces and ended up holding his head in agonised confusion.
Wales are winning, but this is not World Cup form. Anscombe is far the better distributor and the Wales line comes alive when he is in the team, but his kicking can be a liability. Biggar is the better punter, but he is emotional, and his passing is not in the class of a Mo’unga, Cruden, Farrell or Sexton.
France have even more problems. They don’t seem to know from week to week who their starting 10 is. It should probably be Francois Trinh-Duc, but he has been wrecked by mistrust, injury, inconsistent selection and high shots, the latest coming when former Chiefs prop Ben Tameifuna nearly took his head off a few weeks ago.
France’s dilemma was exemplified against Wales. For 40 minutes, Camille Lopez was superb. His kicking stretched Wales and he chose his moments to counter-attack. And then in the second half Lopez fell to pieces, making mistake after mistake. And the side collapsed around him.
Australia are in similar ruins. Like Wales they kept changing their 10 all year. Bernard Foley, Matt Toomua and Kurtley Beale didn’t know if they were coming and going. Nor did the coaches.
Michael Cheika wanted to chug the ball up and have Beale and Israel Folau playing off-thecuff. Attack coach Stephen Larkham was looking for more elaborate set plays and more structure. The divergence cost Larkham his job. No wonder the team looked bewildered.
The world of 10 is an intrigue and it will be fascinating to see how New Zealand’s playmakers evolve through this season’s Super Rugby. Farrell has been reading books about Tom Brady, the Patriots gridiron quarterback, and listening to podcasts as he seeks to refine his control of the game.
I wonder if Barrett will go that way or if he is best left to play his mercurial, off-the-cuff razzledazzle. Or will Mo’unga force the issue with another title. A number 10 of Barrett’s ilk has never won a World Cup. But then again, a 10 as old as Carter had never won a World Cup before 2015.
Barrett is a player for whom everything is possible. Carter, and Mo’unga, are players for whom most things are probable. That is the difference which has traditionally defined World Cup-winning 10s.
The fascination heading into the new Super Rugby season is to discover whether Barrett can defy first Mo’unga, then Farrell, Sexton and Pollard. It is the boy wonder’s road to making history.