Are Olympics too big to fail?
The coronavirus continues its relentless march around the globe, and the world health and financial crisis that has been created will ensure this year stands out in history. A standout victim of the virus could be the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.
Sometimes organisations are ‘‘too big to fail’’. Do the Olympics fall into that category?
As the impact of the coronavirus deepens, the future of the Tokyo Olympics, due to start on July 24, is being questioned.
If the Olympics don’t go ahead the financial consequences will be severe and farreaching, but it’s becoming doubtful that the Games can be saved.
Japan has been hit badly by the virus and many major sports events there, including professional baseball and football, sumo wrestling and the Tokyo marathon, have been cancelled or held without spectators.
If the Olympics can’t be held as scheduled in July-August, could they be postponed until October (the month the 1964 Tokyo Olympics were held), or until next year?
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has income of nearly $6 billion every four-year Olympic cycle. About 73 per cent of that comes from Olympic broadcasting rights. The loss of that income would really hurt the IOC.
Hosting an Olympics is not for the fainthearted. It cost the Australians US$6.6 billion to host the 2000 Sydney Games.
That figure rose to US$15b for the Athens Olympics four years later (primarily because of massively increased security costs following the September 11 terrorist attacks).
The Chinese paid US$44b to host the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Brazil paid US$13.1b to host in 2016.
All those Olympics except Beijing ran at multi-billion-dollar losses.
Japan is said to have spent nearly US$26b so far preparing for the Olympics. If they were cancelled that would be catastrophic financially for the country.
And yet, with Formula One races, major tennis tournaments, The Masters golf, NBA basketball and numerous other big sports events being cancelled or postponed, the Olympics are now in jeopardy.
It takes a lot for the IOC to cancel the summer Olympics. The scheduled 1916 Berlin Olympics were cancelled because of World War 1.
The 1940 Olympics were to have been held in Tokyo and, owing to Japan’s involvement in World War II, were moved to Helsinki then eventually cancelled.
London was to have hosted the 1944
Games, which were also cancelled because of World War II.
But the IOC let the 1936 Berlin Olympics proceed, despite widespread condemnation of the Nazi regime and the Germans’ plans to use the Games for propaganda purposes.
An Alternative Games were planned for Barcelona and drew 6000 athletes from 22 countries, but fell over at the very last moment when the Spanish Civil War broke out.
On September 5, 1972, during the Munich
Olympics, Palestinian terrorists broke into the Olympic Village and kidnapped 11 of the Israeli team.
All the Israelis were eventually killed, plus five Palestinians and a police officer. The incident was so horrific that there were calls, including from Munich Olympic Organising Committee President Willi Daume, for the rest of the Games to be cancelled.
But IOC President Avery Brundage wouldn’t hear of it, and after a 34-hour postponement the Games resumed.
The IOC stood firm during the Olympic boycotts of 1976 (22 countries), 1980 (66 countries) and 1984 (16 countries).
But this situation is tougher and the organisations involved in the discussions – the World Health Organisation, the International Olympic Committee, the Japanese government and the Tokyo Organising Committee – really have no good alternatives.
No summer Olympics have ever been moved. The event is simply too big. And anyway, where could the Olympics be moved to, safe from the coronavirus?
Postponing the games three months would be incredibly difficult commercially. NBC, for example, has sold US$1.25b worth of advertisements timed for the Olympics, and would face major clashes with other major events if there was a postponement.
And what of the athletes? About 11,500 athletes, competing in 33 sports, are preparing to compete in July-August.
Their training is finely balanced. An athlete can’t simply turn peak form on and off like a tap.
The Olympics have become a monstrous event. The first modern Olympics, in Athens in 1896, involved just nine sports and 241 men (no women were permitted to compete). The New Zealand team alone for Tokyo this year will number about 180 competitors in 16 sports.
New Zealanders have fond if dimming memories of the last time the Olympics were held in Tokyo 56 years ago.
Peter Snell won the 800m-1500m double, and in the blue riband 1500m John Davies won a bronze medal, so there were two New Zealanders on the dais.
Sailors Helmer Pedersen and Earle Wells won gold in the Flying Dutchman and Marise Chamberlain (one of only eight women in the 64-strong New Zealand team) claimed a hardfought bronze in the 800m.
Bill Baillie in the 5000m, Val Young in the shot put, Murray Watkinson in the single sculls rowing and Peter Mander in the Finn class sailing, all recorded top six finishes.
It would be terrific to create some more Olympic history this year in Tokyo.
However, the omens aren’t promising As early as February 26, Canadian Dick Pound, the longest-serving member of the
IOC, raised the prospect of the Games being cancelled.
One member of the Olympic organising committee floated the idea of a postponement, only to be slapped down by Yoshiro Mori, the Tokyo Olympic Games chief.
IOC President Thomas Bach emerged from an IOC board meeting last week and announced the Games would proceed.
But the coronavirus continues to spread, and hundreds of thousands of Olympic hotel and airline bookings need to be confirmed, the 12,000 media and millions of ticket holders need some certainty, security needs to be finalised, the Olympic Village needs to be opened.
If the Games are to be cancelled or postponed, that decision would have to be made by May at the latest.
In the meantime, athletes continue to train, Olympic administrators keep their fingers crossed and everyone follows the spread of the coronavirus, looking optimistically for a spark of hope that might help defy the inevitable.