So, what does it take to be dropped from the Black Caps?
Henry Nicholls’ century against the Windies was timely, because his record had him in unwelcome company. Andrew Voerman runs the rule over the batsman’s numbers.
HOWmuch pressurewas Henry Nicholls underin the first innings of the second test between the Black Caps and the West Indies last week?
Only coach Gary Stead and selector Gavin Larsen can say for sure – and based on what they have said, the answer would appear to be: not much.
After making 174 in that innings, his highest test score, Nicholls is certainly not under pressure any more, but it’s worth taking the time to put that performance in context.
Across his past 10 innings before the start of the second test, he was averaging just 17.9.
That’s less than the 19.8 Jeet Raval averaged in the 10 innings before he was dropped last year, the 18.5 Martin Guptill averaged before he was dropped in 2016, the 19.1 Hamish Rutherford averaged in 2015, and the 22.7 Dean Brownlie averaged in 2013.
Only Peter Fulton (averaging 6.3 in 10 innings) has performed worse than Nicholls before being axed from the Black Caps test side since March 2013, when wholesale changes were made under Mike Hesson and Brendon McCullum following the disastrous South Africa tour.
Take all that into account, and it’s fair to say Nicholls probably should have been under a bit of pressure, especially with Will Young and Devon Conway knocking loudly on the selectors’ doors.
What makes him different to the five batsmen dropped over the past seven years is his overall record – and selectors’ tendency to show faith in their players more often than not.
Before the last test, Nicholls had scored 1754 runs at average of 38.97 with five centuries – while the best average of the other five dropped batsmen was Rutherford’s 30.07, and that group had scored eight centuries between them over the course of their careers.
Nicholls rode his luck at the Basin Reserve. On 21, he hit one straight to short leg that didn’t stick, and on 47, he was put down twice in the slips, while there were a number of other false shots and edges. But he persevered and ended up playing amatch-winning innings, arguably the best of his career.
As former Black Caps captain Brendon McCullum noted in commentary, while Nicholls was still in the 70s: ‘‘In another time, he may not have been afforded that opportunity. There’s many cases throughout New Zealand cricket history where guys haven’t had a sustained period to be able to find form, but amark of this New Zealand side is their selection consistency, and they’re being rewarded today.’’
Former test batsman, Mark Richardson, was alongside McCullum and said that Nicholls ‘‘would have felt under pressure’’. ‘‘He hadn’t scored runs for some time, and he would have thought, ‘If I continue to actually have a lean trot here, my place is actually under threat’. But you grit your teeth, you ride your luck, you don’t play your greatest innings, but it doesn’t matter and all of a sudden you think ‘I’m not playing for my place right now’, and that mindset alone can allow you to find form.’’
Richardson’s assessment turned out to be on the money because Nicholls finished day one on 117, then returned on day two and added another 57 runs, while looking much more assured, as if a huge weight had been removed from his shoulders. The flipside of his success is that there is now no obvious path into the Black Caps test team for any aspiring batsmen, at a time when there are two in particular who have made compelling cases while playing for New Zealand A and in the Plunket Shield domestic competition.
Young actually played in both tests against the West Indies, as a result of an injury to BJ Watling, then the impending arrival of
Kane Williamson’s first baby, and made five in his first innings and 43 in his second, but assuming there are no further disruptions, he’ll be carrying the drinks when the first test against Pakistan starts on Boxing Day in Mount Maunganui.
Not even in the squad will be Conway, which seems incredible since he’s scored 1124 runs in his past 20 first-class innings* at an average of 66, with two centuries. Young, meanwhile, had scored an equally impressive 996 at an average of 62 with five centuries in the 20 innings before his debut.
Those are big numbers – of the 13 other batsmen, wicketkeepers, and all-rounders to make their test debuts since March 2013, only Tom Latham (980 runs at 61, one century) had a first-class average of more than 60 in the same
period beforehand, with Rutherford (1137 at 57, two centuries) and Nicholls (1003 at 53, three centuries) the next best after him.
You have to go back to 2010 and Peter Ingram (1202 at 67, three centuries) to find an outand-out batsman with a better average than Conway has right now in that 20-innings period – roughly equivalent to a full domestic season – and his shortlived test career is a healthy reminder that domestic firstclass form isn’t everything.
After Nicholls’ century in Wellington, the incumbent Black Caps top-five are all averaging more than 40 over the course of their careers and won’t be going anywhere in a hurry. As Conway said earlier this week, it’s going to be ‘‘a hell of a task’’ for anyone to unseat them.
Latham and Williamson have never had a 10-innings stretch where their average has dropped below 20 and neither has Tom Blundell, though his test career is only 13 innings long, while Nicholls has just arrested the first major slump of his career.
That leaves Ross Taylor, who has
had one such
stretch – in 2016, when it turned out he’d been playingwith a growth on his left eye which had made it hard for him to pick up the swinging ball – and is on the verge of another, averaging 20.33 in his past 10 innings.
But he’s also got a glittering 13-year career to point to – and his coach’s backing, with Stead saying this week: ‘‘He’s got class and we know that, and I’m sure he’s just one innings away from everyone going onto someone else that they want to talk about’’.
Stead is right to suggest the talk never stops – before Nicholls it was about Raval at the end of last year and before Raval (way back in 2016) it was about Guptill – but if Conway and Young continue to perform like they have in 2020, it’s only going to grow louder.
* Why look at 20 first-class innings for those trying to break into the test team and 10 test innings for those at risk of being dropped for it? Any cut-off is arbitrary, but it seems fair to say batsmen should have to perform consistently over a long period to earn selection, while they can’t be allowed to fail for too long once they get there. In Nicholls’ case, for example, his past 10 innings covered the first West Indies test, the home series against India in February and March, the away series against Australia last December, and the home series against Bangladesh in March 2019.