Why 2023 isn’t the year for Warriors
Let’s be pragmatic about this and get the negativity out of the way right off the bat. The Warriors won’t break their NRL premiership drought this year.
And worse still, despite all the positivity around new head coach Andrew Webster and a clump of fresh and fascinating signings, the Warriors remain a strong chance to miss the top-eight finals.
But oddly enough, the biggest metric of success for Webster’s first season isn’t playing finals or even the number of wins, it’s about winning credibility, creating culture and dumping bad habits. Things that Nathan Brown couldn’t do.
Sport is absolutely a resultsbased business but when you’re talking about a club that finishes second to last in 2022, has only made the finals twice (2011 and 2018) in the past 12 seasons and been through sagas such as the messy Matt Lodge departure, success looks a little different than it might to the Roosters, Panthers or Storm.
Whether the club cares to admit it or not, they are rebuilding once again.
The long wait to become a consistent finals club and then a top-four proposition, might actually be within reach during Webster’s tenure. But, first things first, the 70-point thrashings and disastrous capitulations at the back end of games must go. Matches against the bottom four teams have to be won.
If the Warriors finish the regular season – now made up of 17 teams with the arrival of the Dolphins – in ninth or 10th and eliminate the above, that’s a couple of decent KPI’s ticked.
And if there is scope to see the Warriors as a genuine finals threat in 2024, it will also give NRL players at other clubs confidence to look at a shift to Auckland without needing massive compensation for heading to a bottom-four club in another country.
With the NRL salary cap, success breeds success and the poor get poorer. It’s tough to break the cycle.
And with the hope that the first half of 2023 can inspire confidence in a brighter future at Mt Smart, one of those 2024 signings should be a marquee player.
Whether they play league or not, the vast majority of young local talent comes to the Warriors through the First XV rugby system. Previously, the club hasn’t done the best job of developing these young athletes into NRL players or even securing the best ones.
Late last year, two of the best schoolboy league talents in Auckland, Francis Manuleleua and Xavier Tito-Harris went to the Penrith Panthers and New Zealand Rugby.
On recent form, you can understand why parents of schoolboy stars would avoid the Warriors for the stability of rugby academies or the more trusted opportunities at Australian NRL clubs.
If Thursday’s 48-12 trial win over the Tigers taught us anything, it was how handicapped the club has been without its own New South Wales and SG Ball teams during the pandemic. But the club’s struggles to turn potential into consistent first-graders has been an ongoing issue.
If the Luke Metcalfs and
Ronald Volkmans get opportunities at the Warriors in a competitive team, more young up-and-coming Australian talent will follow.
History tells us that the few times the Warriors have been strong finals contenders, homegrown talent is critical.
If Viliami Vailea, Tom Ale,
Rocco Berry, Valingi Kepu, plus development players Zyon
Maiu’u, Demitric Sifakula, Ali Leiataua and Jacob Laban can be developed into NRL regulars, it will restore trust in the club’s pathways.
Rachel Hunter wasn’t talking about Webster or the Warriors when she famously said ‘‘it won’t happen overnight but it will happen’’, but with a bit of patience, her Pantene slogan could finally ring true for the eternal battlers under the former Panthers assistant, who seemingly has the master plan the club has been desperately
craving for so long.