South Island derby could decide Crusaders’ and Highlanders’ fates
ANALYSIS: Circle the date of May 11 on the calendar.
The Highlanders will face the Crusaders at Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin, and already it looks like it will be a pivotal game in determining which South Island side makes the Super Rugby Pacific playoffs.
That is not a scenario anyone saw coming at the start of the season, but the Crusaders’ 43-40 golden-point loss to the Waratahs in Sydney on Friday once again raises the possibility that the defending champions will not make the finals cut this season.
It was not supposed to be this way for the Crusaders. After a strong win against the Chiefs in round six, Rob Penney’s side regained Ethan Blackadder, Brodie McAlister and Christian Lio-Willie to give them a more formidable look.
However, on Friday they repeatedly conceded points after scoring, saw their famed maul defence targeted by the Australians, and somehow contrived to lose the game even though they were three points ahead with the clock in the red.
The failure to deal with the Waratahs’ final restart was the definition of un-Crusaders-like, and not even another outstanding effort from Sevu Reece could lift the clunky champions to their second win of the season.
They are now two wins outside the top eight, and the lack of control they showed against the Waratahs, with and without the ball, will be a major concern.
Still, it is not unconceivable that they could win their next three games, against the Western Force in Perth, and the Rebels and Reds in Christchurch.
Christian Lio-Willie offered impact off the bench on Friday and must surely start, probably at No 8, while Blackadder will be much better for the run against the Waratahs after a long spell out.
Yet, the real issues are at No 9 and No 10, where Noah Hotham and Riley Hohepa failed to impose themselves in Sydney,
particularly with their kicking games.
Fergus Burke’s continued injury woes add to Penney’s headaches, while Codie Taylor’s return at hooker can’t come soon enough.
Missing Taylor and lock Scott Barrett, the young Crusaders pack is missing some starch and it would have pained the senior All Blacks to see Waratahs lock plough through some unconvincing maul defence for a first-half try.
The Waratahs almost repeated the dose just before halftime, with only some desperate defence by Hotham holding up Charlie Gamble after he had barged his way over the line.
The Crusaders’ rocky season, however, sets up the South Island derby quite beautifully.
The Highlanders haven’t hosted the Crusaders since February, 2021 – a 26-13 victory for the Crusaders – and the stakes could be high when they meet next month.
The Highlanders have already accepted they are in a mighty scrap for a playoffs place, and in a far tighter competition this year there are probably only four teams who are currently confident of a spot in those knockout games.
Neither the Crusaders nor the Highlanders are in that position, and it may well be that the winner of the derby showdown in Dunedin takes far more than just South Island bragging rights.