FUTURE SHAPERS

Most influential New Zealanders of 2013

DAVID FARRAR Blogger, Auckland

In days before the internet, David Farrar would probably have looked forward to making it as a backbench conservative member of parliament.

As creator of Kiwiblog, the most read and commented upon blog in New Zealand, Farrar exercises, arguably, a greater degree of influence than any backbencher. Commentaries on radio and in the media by Farrar help define the political narrative.

He created Kiwiblog in 2003 when he was a National Party activist and publicist and his views a decade on continue to reflect that.

In the year ahead he believes the big issue will be the US struggle to get debt under control by reducing the federal deficit. ‘‘Sadly, I see no sign of any political leadership in this direction, so believe the US dollar will continue to devalue, and this will push the New Zealand dollar close towards parity with the greenback,’’ he says.

New Zealand’s export industry will feel the impact and although Farrar looks to a successful Trans Pacific Partnership outcome, he doubts the US will agree to meaningful reductions in trade barriers.

He points also to worries that the Chinese economy may slow down.

If it does, and taking into consideration the US and European debt woes, 2013 could be a rough year for New Zealanders.

Domestically, the Government’s planned asset sales will be the dominating political and economic issue. ‘‘The politics are fairly easy to predict – there will be a referendum, and the result will be a vote against. The unknown is how large the turnout is – the larger the turnout, the more damaging it may be.’’

The biggest factor in the year will be how successful the floats actually are. They could give vibrancy to capital markets, boast economic confidence and private savings.

‘‘If the floats are viewed as limp, or even worse are delayed further by the Supreme Court, then the Government’s economic programme will be seriously challenged.’’

Farrars’ tips on politicians to watch: Chris Hipkins in Labour, Kevin Hague of the Greens, new National backbencher Mark Mitchell and Tracey Martin.