Why the FA hopes Brexit will boost England
Fewer foreign imports, more chances for English youth? A weakened Premier League? The likely effects of Brexit on English football are perhaps not anyone’s immediate preoccupation but while leading clubs were deeply concerned, Greg Dyke, the FA chairman, expressed a hope the victory for Leave could help the national team.
Two years after he warned that English football was squeezing out its own players, Dyke said that Brexit might reverse that trend by making it harder for clubs to keep buying players from overseas.
‘‘It could take two years to really know, but there could be quite an impact on English football because of Brexit,’’ Dyke said.
‘‘My personal view has always been that the decline in the number of English players in Premier League first teams – we’re down to about 30 percent now – is a shame. So if it increases the number of English players, that is to be welcomed.’’
Dyke added that it ‘‘would be a shame if some of the great European players can’t come here but I don’t think that will happen’’. Which footballers will be allowed, and which will not, once the uncoupling from the European Union takes place is the main concern for Premier League clubs who spend so much of their wealth on imports.
As Dyke added: ‘‘Clearly if the free movement of labour changes then English football clubs won’t just be able to bring in any European footballer they want to. There will have to be a process.’’
There is clearly a prospect that EU players will be subject to entry criteria like those which already exist from outside the EU.
Leave campaigners have suggested a points-based system for EU migrants, and non-EU footballers must already meet work-permit criteria such as being established internationals for leading nations. Dyke recently drove through a toughening up of those restrictions, complaining that major clubs too often win on appeal. For example, the criteria previously applied to nations ranked in the top 70 but that was changed to top 50. The transfer fee and wages are also taken into consideration.
It is believed that more than 300 non-British EU players in the top two divisions in England and Scotland would fall below that bar. Lower-grade footballers in the bottom divisions would be particularly affected, but more than 100 Premier League players could fall short.
Among the dozens of top-flight players who would not automatically have qualified to play in England had they not been in possession of an EU passport are N’Golo Kante, a star for titlewinning Leicester City, David De Gea and Morgan Schneiderlin, of Manchester United, Liverpool goalkeeper Simon Mignolet and Dimitri Payet, of West Ham United.
Top clubs will be very worried about losing the chance to recruit emerging talent. Baroness Karren Brady, vice-chairman of West Ham, wrote earlier this year that Brexit would have ‘‘devastating consequences for the economy and the competitiveness of British football’’, pointing out that ‘‘losing unhindered access to European talent would put British clubs at a disadvantage compared to continental sides’’.
There could be fresh conflict between Premier League clubs and the FA over the work-permit criteria, with clubs trying to water down the restrictions and the governing body perhaps agreeing with Dyke that this is an opportunity to increase the number of British players.
Brexit could have more immediate effects. Clubs will be looking at the weakened pound and wonder if it will lead to higher salary demands. Will Zlatan Ibrahimovic suddenly ask for more from Manchester United if he is to be paid in pounds?
‘‘If the pound continues to fall then foreign talent will become more expensive, so that could have a huge knock-on effect in the summer transfer window,’’ Simon Chadwick, professor of sports enterprise at the University of Salford, warned.
Will clubs rush to stockpile young EU talent? At academy level, EU players are allowed to move to English clubs aged 16. Under Fifa rules on international transfers, they would only be able to move at 18 if Britain were outside the EU – and players would need to meet work-permit levels which is highly unlikely for teenagers. English clubs would have to fill their academies from the UK, dramatically cutting their choice of talent and putting an even greater price premium on the best of home-grown youth.
For English football, the effects could yet prove profound and, like the rest of country, the game is divided. Clubs are worried, the chairman of the FA cautiously optimistic. Expect fresh battles between them.