Todd’s rough deal

Todd Blackadder is going, and the prevailing sentiment appears to be that he will not be greatly missed.

Even if he and his Crusaders go on to win Super Rugby this year, that title will be probably be seen as too little too late.

Which is a shame, because many of the dozens of coaches that have come and gone in the competition over the years would kill to have his record.

Earlier this month, when asked whose legacy was greater – Blackadder’s or his Highlanders counterpart Jamie Joseph, who is off to Japan – four of my colleagues plumped for Joseph, citing the Highlanders’ title last season as the main reason why.

If that’s your metric, then that’s the answer. But let’s play a little game.

Consider these two coaches, and their team’s records in regularseason games prior to this weekend (i.e. no playoffs).

Coach A’s team have won 65 per cent of his games in charge, Coach B’s have won 68 per cent.

Coach A’s team average 3.07 tries per game, Coach B’s average 3.17. Coach A’s concede 2.06, Coach B’s 2.13.

Coach A’s team average 28.23 points per game, Coach B’s average 27.36; Coach A’s concede 19.65, Coach B’s 21.99 Pretty much a wash, right? Well, that’s Blackadder (Coach A) and Dave Rennie (Coach B).

It is true that numbers do not paint the whole picture. There are many other factors that should be taken into account when assessing the value of a coach, including their style of play and the number of titles they win – areas where Rennie has the advantage.

Titles are probably the one that matter the most, and Blackadder has none, yet.

Twice, the Crusaders ran into Rennie’s Chiefs teams in the playoffs on the road, losing narrowly in semifinals in Hamilton in 2012 and 2013.

Twice, they made the final, losing in Queensland in 2011, at the end of a season spent entirely on the road following the Christchurch earthquake, and in Sydney in 2014, where they were ahead, only to concede a questionable penalty at the death.

Fine margins that may cloud Blackadder’s resume forever.

Perhaps his real problem is what came before him. He succeeded Robbie Deans, a man who brought five titles to the garden city in the space of nine years, setting a very high bar.

If living up to Deans, whose sides won 73 per cent of their games, averaging four tries per game, is the test, then almost everybody fails.

Where Blackadder lands next is anybody’s guess – the Reds appear to be leading the hunt although Bath are a late entry – but he will surely seek another coaching job in New Zealand at some point.

If and when he does, he shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.