A new era of DIY terrorism
‘Lone wolf’ assaults on easy targets, such as the Nice attack, can have a huge impact and are hard to prevent.
The attack in Nice that killed more than 80 people is an example of a shift in tactics by terror groups which are encouraging followers in the West to stay home and wreak havoc with whatever means they have at their disposal.
The use of a truck to mow down victims in the French Riviera resort town is part of a move to a do-ityourself-style terrorism used by lone wolves or small terror cells to conduct attacks that require minimal planning and support, analysts say.
No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but al Qaeda and Islamic State have advocated the use of vehicles to kill people over the years. These types of attacks are generally inspired, but not directed, by a terror group.
Analysts say the West needs to brace for an increase in such attacks on ‘‘soft’’ targets carried out by easily available means.
‘‘The high-impact/low-capability nature of the attack raises the risk of the repeated use of the tactic in France and allied countries in the coming months,’’ according to an analysis by IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre, which tracks terror groups.
Vehicles have been used in terror attacks in recent years.
In France, jihadists acting alone used cars to attack crowds in Valence in January, and in Nantes and Dijon in December 2014, killing one person and wounding 20. Another attack took place in Quebec, Canada in October 2014.
These kinds of simple attacks are increasing as Isis loses territory in Iraq and Syria.
Groups like Isis and al Qaeda encouraged their followers to conduct attacks and told them they would claim credit for successful assaults, said Mubin Shaik, a former counter-terror operative for Canadian security and intelligence services.
Attacks on easy targets, such as families gathered to watch fireworks, can wreak havoc and garner headlines with limited planning and oversight. They are also hard to prevent.
‘‘There’s some planning and logistics that go with it, but it’s not the most sophisticated attack you’ll ever see,’’ said Patrick Johnston, a terrorism analyst at the Rand Corporation. ‘‘This is sort of the next tactical shift.’’
Isis was encouraging these types of assaults against Westerners as far back as 2014, even recommending vehicles as a way to kill foreigners.
Spokesman Abu Muhammad alAdnani al-Shami, in a 2014 statement, encouraged followers to kill ‘‘disbelievers’’ in the West by any means possible, including rocks, knives, choking, poison or running them over with a car.
Even with less planning and logistical support, the attacks achieved the objectives of radical Islamic groups, Shaik said.
‘‘They demoralise people and create more anti-Muslim sentiment. It’s deliberately done like this to cleave societies apart.’’
A video released by Isis recently exhorts the terrorist group’s followers to launch attacks on civilians by using a truck to mow them down. ‘‘Fill your cars with gas,’’ the voiceover commands on the video, which was distributed during the Ramadan fasting month through Isis-affiliated jihadist chatrooms.
The video advocating vehicle attacks was recovered by analysts from the United States-based International Centre for the Study of Violent Extremism. It provides examples of suggested atrocities, including a suicide attack in New
It’s not the most sophisticated attack you’ll ever see . . . This is sort of the next tactical shift. Patrick Johnston, Rand Corporation terrorism analyst
York, a sniper attack in London, and using a four-wheel-drive vehicle to crash into crowds in Australia.
The concept of using a car or truck to mount a ‘‘lone wolf’ attack was propagated in Inspire, the English-language magazine produced by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in late 2010.
The magazine ran a series of articles on what it called ‘‘open source jihad’’ – means of carrying out mass casualty attacks in the West by jihadist supporters with no training or established links to terrorist groups.
One was titled ‘‘The ultimate mowing machine’’, and featured the use of a four-wheel-drive vehicle or truck to run over crowds at a public event.
It gave detailed instructions on the practicality of such an attack, which mirror many aspects of the Nice incident.
The article advocated using a large vehicle to strike a crowd in a congested area where people would not be able to escape. It gave detailed advice on how and where to approach a crowd so as to achieve the maximum number of casualties, as well as details of speed and how the vehicle might easily be modified for maximum lethal effect.
The article concluded that the attack would likely be a ‘‘martyrdom mission’’, suggesting that the terrorist should try to take a gun to continue killing after the crowd scattered.
An ideal location was one that was narrow and congested, and which had been closed off to other vehicles, it stated.
‘‘It’s a one-way road,’’ the al Qaeda author wrote. ‘‘You keep on fighting until you achieve martyrdom. You start the day in this world and by the end of it you are with Allah.’’