President always feared a coup – he was proved right
During two election campaigns last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke gloomily of dark forces working against democracy and his government – foreign conspirators, even a ‘‘crusader alliance.’’
To outside observers, Erdogan’s paranoia seemed a deliberate political calculation, aimed at rallying conservative and nationalist Turks to his banner. But maybe he had a point.
Turkey has a long history of military coups. Meddling officers unseated governments in 1960, 1971, and 1980 – the coup makers then put into place Turkey’s current constitution. In 1997, the stern ‘‘recommendations’’ of the military initiated what was called a soft coup, forcing an Islamist party out of office.
But since Erdogan and the AKP came to power in 2002, it had seemed that the age of the coup was over in Turkey. The country has had steady, stable civilian rule. Elections have been held and proceeded, more or less, without too much of a fuss. The shadow of the conspiratorial movers and schemers behind the government seemed to have been dispelled.
As their rule brought about considerable economic and social reforms in Turkey, Erdogan and his allies built what seemed like an ironclad grip on the levers of power, including a military brass cowed into submission after a series of trials against alleged conspirators.
In recent years, though, Erdogan has possibly overstepped.
After a decade as prime minister, he won election for the presidency – technically a ceremonial and apolitical role – and set about refashioning the Turkish republic in his image. He sought an executive presidency with expanded powers; in Ankara, he built a vast 10,000-room palace for himself.
Erdogan’s authoritarian style grew apace. Major opposition newspapers and TV stations were shuttered or taken over; journalists and dissenters have been arrested on various charges. Even his onetime closest political ally was sidelined.
Meanwhile, the civil war in Syria – and Turkey’s own bungled policies in the region – fuelled unrest within the country. The Kurdish insurgency flared up. Islamic State, which critics say gained ground through Turkish negligence, started attacking targets within Turkey.
The assault on Istanbul airport last month, it seemed, marked a new and dangerous moment of open conflict between the jihadists and the Turkish state.
Few observers believed that the military’s top brass would ever contemplate a coup against Erdogan and the AKP. But that was less true for lower-ranked officers.
That Turkey in chaos is in no doubt. The question remains: where does it go from here? Its democracy looks set for rocky times, no matter who – Erdogan or the coup makers – prevails.