Cane, Savea or Todd? What stats reveal about No 7 debate

The leading contenders play vastly different roles.

When Richie McCaw called time on his All Blacks career, a hole opened in the squad.

Rather than being left in a challenging situation, the All Blacks selectors have been spoiled for choice with three superb No 7s looking to claim the black jumper.

Sam Cane appears to be Steve Hansen’s top choice to fill the void, having been the back-up for the past few years.

Ardie Savea, however, looks like the form flanker in Super Rugby, and Matt Todd has his loyal backers out of Canterbury.

Who then, should be given the nod as New Zealand’s new seven?

McCaw was the hardest worker in rugby. But with Cane, Savea and Todd you have three different players, playing different systems and different roles with the Chiefs, Hurricanes and Crusaders respectively.

We looked at three games in which the No 7s went head to head throughout the Super Rugby season to see who performed best.

Judging solely by the raw numbers, Savea would appear to be the pick of the bunch, but it’s important to take into account the system each player is being asked to play.

Looking at player work-rate as far as breakdowns attended by a player, Savea (30.8 per cent) and Cane (29.4 per cent) are very similar throughout these key games.

Cane is part of more breakdowns at 22.8 per cent, but Savea is in a position to join a breakdown more often, choosing instead to wait and look for a turnover at the next breakdown.

Todd falls off in his work-rate numbers by comparison.

A look at the tackling numbers shows where Savea and Cane really split apart, and shows the different roles the Hurricanes and Chiefs are asking from the players.

The first thing to note is how few tackles Savea made in two games against the Chiefs and Crusaders, with only 15 total tackle attempts to Cane’s 33 and Todd’s 29.

That’s where a different philosophy for what the openside should be doing on the field comes in.

Savea usually sits as the defensive A pillar, in other words the man right next to the ruck.

For Cane and Todd, they usually sit as the C or D pillar, which makes them three or four metres away from the ruck.

When the opposing team passes the ball, Savea likes to float sideways across the back of his fellow defenders, waiting for an opportunity to be first to a tackled player in an attempt to steal the ball.

Cane and Todd, on the other hand, are fast out of the line in an attempt to make a big tackle behind the gain line, what we’ve called a dominant tackle.

That’s why, despite having a lower tackling percentage than Savea, Cane is the best tackler of the group. He makes more tackles behind the gain line than others, and many of those are in open field compared to Savea pulling down a prop on the pick and go.

Another consequence of the playing style is that Cane had fewer turnovers than his opponents in these games, grabbing only one while Savea and Todd had one in each game.

Savea is a clear winner when it comes to his running game, having more defenders beaten and linebreaks than Cane or Todd, but the All Blacks selectors are more likely to look at core roles when selecting their side.

In the end, it will come down to what style of play they want from their openside. If they want a hardworking tough tackler, it will be Cane. If they want a hard worker who focuses mainly on trying to steal ball, Savea is their man.

Unfortunately for Todd, he’s playing in an era when he’s good, but not good enough to make an All Blacks spot his own.

All statistics were compiled by InForm Analysis.