Fifa wants to turn World Cup into a lottery

Sepp Blatter’s replacement is making a big mistake.

It was supposed to be a joke.

A joke we all thought could never actually happen. A bloated, ugly manifestation of the capitalist, greedy world we live in. Not Donald Trump. A 48-team World Cup. But it is happening, and it’s coming to a country near you in 2026.

Many countries around the world are enjoying the FIFA president Gianni Infantino’s joke immensely, because it increases their chances of getting an invite to the Big Party.

Oceania will see its allocation increase from half a place to a full spot, which makes New Zealand the luckiest country in the world because unless the boundaries are redrawn, all that stands between us and the finals are the likes of Fiji and the Solomon Islands.

No nasty playoff with the likes of Mexico or Colombia. No disrespect to our Pacific neighbours, but that’s not the toughest qualifying process on the planet.

So if countries all across the globe are breaking out the champagne, what’s the problem with having nearly a quarter of FIFA’s 211 members turn up at the finals?

What’s wrong is that the World Cup finals used to be a competition to find the world’s best team. It didn’t always happen. Hungary lost in 1954. The Netherlands in 1974. Brazil in 1982. That’s football. Upsets happen.

But now the chances of the best team not winning are too high. Infantino will cram 48 teams and 80 matches into 32 days. To do that requires less group play, and more knockout matches, starting from a round of 32.

And that’s the problem. A tournament where you have to win five games in a row isn’t about finding the best team, it’s a lottery. Look at the Premier League. The other day Chelsea, the league’s best team, lost to Spurs. If that was the World Cup, Chelsea would be out. In the Premier League, they’re still in the lead.

Look at the FA Cup, football’s best known knockout competition. In 1973 Sunderland won it. In 1976 it was Southampton and 1980 West Ham. Were they the best teams in England? No, they were in the Second Division.

In knockout tournaments, anyone can win. We don’t want that. We want to know who’s best. Most modern World Cups have had a nice balance of group play and knock out, starting at the quarterfinals. Then 16. But 32? Come on.

Infantino could have satisfied his desire to win more votes and line FIFA’s pockets, without this quantum leap in format. He could have gone to 40 teams, and increased the size of the eight groups from four to five.

But 48 teams? Groups of three, with only one team going home? It’d actually make more sense to have 64 teams, with 16 groups of four, not three. Hell, let’s have 128, play knockout from round one and call it Wimbledon.

It’s disappointing, coming from a man who was supposed to be the anti-Blatter. A man to restore (or rather, bring) integrity and good sense to FIFA.

Oh, what fun it will be when the feeding frenzy for those extra World Cup places start.

And when all the blood has dried, where will this parody of a sports event take place? If it’s viewers, sponsorship, money and growth of the game that FIFA wants (and it is), then put your bets on China.