Europe still battling with fear and uncertainty
A trip through Amsterdam airport revealed some unhappy truths, writes Martin Hawes.
It is a shock to see soldiers toting sub-machine guns through the Arrivals Hall at Amsterdam airport. In some ways, you can think of the machine guns as a comfort: it is nice to know there is protection.
But these soldiers also serve a sharp reminder that all is not well. There is plenty of protection because there are any number of risks and threats which need these young men with their guns.
When you think about it, it is hard for people to relax and believe in a rosy future when there are heavily armed combat troops hanging out beside the Duty Free shop.
There is nothing like a trip to Europe to see the world and all its risks. You can read the numbers and know the economics and politics in an abstract way, but little vignettes (like seeing soldiers stationed in the airport) give a deeper understanding of reality. Being there and seeing is everything.
The serious look on a soldier’s face as he casts his eye over the baggage claim area tells you more about how people are thinking and feeling than any data set you might read on a screen.
Europeans are fearful. The Dutch sit at the heart of Europe and they have watched Brexit and then Trump. They have seen great migrations to their own country as well as their near neighbours. They have experienced terror and, since the GFC, have suffered a decade of tough economic times. Of course they are unsettled and nervous.
There is plenty of geo-political risk: war in the Middle East, the possible contagion of Brexit, a new US President who inspires little confidence, terror, mass migrations, the rise of extreme political parties and the fear of a standoff between the world’s two biggest economies (the US and China).
The armed soldiers are not the problem - but they represent and highlight the risks. They illustrate the underlying anxiety that people have to live with on a daily basis.
Safe, little New Zealand seems so distant from much of this. New Zealand is much more confident and less fearful than Europe: we are safe and have a strong economy. Little wonder then that our immigration is so strong: going off to New Zealand must seem a smart thing to do for a lot of people.
Despite all the threats, economically there is some better news in Europe. However, for Europeans, memories of financial difficulty, recession and the threat of deflation are recent and raw – and therefore front of mind. There is some confidence in an economic recovery but many people I have talked to worry that it is brittle – recovery could turn around very easily.
The nascent recovery has been good for investors although there is little sign of wild celebration just yet. In fact, it may be some time before Europeans can set aside their fears and worries and start to party. In the end, it is hard to see great exuberance while soldiers are still on the streets.