Chasing the perfect chance
Opportunity knocks for New Zealand’s green ambitions.
Where New Zealand’s best economic opportunities lie is clearly laid out in two international reports on us out this week.
The OECD’s once-a-decade report on our environment argues strongly for ‘‘the transition towards a low-carbon, greener economy.’’
We have to because our current model ‘‘has started to show its environmental limits,’’ the OECD says. The escalating pressures on land and water are evident in rural and urban economies, according to its analysis available at nz2050.com/NZenviro2017.
The second report is from Vivid Economics of the UK. It analyses four scenarios of how New Zealand could significantly cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The goal is to meet our international climate change commitments in ways that are economically beneficial.
Commissioned by an all-party group of MPs who constitute the NZ chapter of GLOBE, an international parliamentary association focusing on the environment, the report is available at nz2050.com/NZvivid2017.
The advantage of the Vivid report is the way its scenarios help show the impact for better or worse of the decisions we might make.
Off Track, Vivid’s first scenario, is based on two contrasting strategies: big changes such as rapid electrification of the vehicle fleet; but only very modest changes in agriculture and forestry. Our overall emissions would fall moderately, but leave our economy trailing far
behind the decarbonisation of the global economy.
Innovative New Zealand, its second scenario, relies on substantial technological advances. The urban economy, for example, would benefit from the likes of steep cost reductions for electric vehicles, while dairy and meat farming would gain from vaccines and inhibitors to reduce methane emissions from animals.
There would also be a partial shift from pastoral farming to horticulture and other low emissions agricultural activity, with sheep and cattle numbers falling by 20-35 per cent by 2050.
After allowing for emissions absorbed by forests, net emissions would be 70-80 per cent lower than levels today. But we’d run the risk that some technologies required might not eventuate, or be economically viable.
Resourceful New Zealand, its third scenario, achieves a similar reduction in emissions. But it relies on much greater planting of new forests to absorb emissions because of slower technological progress in transport, energy and agriculture.
This emphasis on forestry, though, comes with big downsides such as heavy land use changes, which ‘‘imply profound changes’’ to the rural economy. Moreover, reliance on plantation forests reduces opportunities to restore biodiversity. Once forestation has reached its limits around 2050, we’d face even more intense pressure to find other ways to cut emissions.
Net Zero 2050, its fourth scenario, essentially combines the technology, land use changes and
The goal is to meet our international climate change commitments in ways that are economically beneficial.
forestation drivers of scenarios two and three. It would put us at the forefront if the global goal shifted to keeping climate change to a 1.5 degrees centigrade rise from a 2 degree rise.
These scenarios show how closely government, business and civil society must work together over the next three decades to maximise opportunities and minimise risks. This requires unprecedented consistency and co-operation on comprehensive policies, strategies and investment.
The best way to achieve this is through all-party support for a mechanism pioneered by the UK and now used by a dozen countries. This is an independent national climate commission that sets emission reduction targets and evaluates the progress of government policies towards meeting them. Our parliament’s interest in this is growing.
Of the three broad themes in the scenario, it’s clear we should help lead the global push for more sustainable, higher value agriculture; adopt as fast as we can cost effective clean technologies; and not become overly reliant on forestry or trading of international carbon credits.
The biggest conclusion from the Vivid and OECD reports is this: we can meet our climate responsibilities to deliver a much healthier environment, a much stronger economy and a greatly enhanced international reputation.
Now that’s a future worth working for.