Bluster from Greens hides realpolitik
Party will have limited leverage if Winston Peters turns out to be kingmaker after the election.
Hear the rattling chains of elections past? The Greens will never forget the clanking, like tinnitus ringing in their ears, reminding them of the way Labour and NZ First conspired to do the dirty on them in 2005. Could it happen again? Yes. The Greens and NZ First are not even close to the antipathy of 2005 ... yet.
The battle lines are drawn, oh yes, but a spat started by Greens co-leader Metiria Turei last weekend is only a warm-up as both parties engage in a war for headlines from their respective conferences, taking place on opposite sides of Auckland this weekend.
In reality, the reaction to that flare-up may only serve to highlight how well they have actually been getting along to this point.
It’s nowhere near the levels of vitriol doled out by former leader Rod Donald, who in 2005 labelled Winston Peters a ‘‘snake oil merchant’’.
By comparison, Turei’s pointer to ‘‘racist’’ NZ First policies and a thinly veiled ultimatum, staring down the prospect of a 2005 re-enactment, was decidedly vanilla.
‘‘The most obvious is that if the Greens are not in government after September, our country will face either a Labour-NZF or a National NZF government. Neither is acceptable to the Greens,’’ she said in a speech delivered at the party’s campaign launch in Nelson, last weekend.
Turei stopped short of saying the Greens would leave a hung Parliament if Labour and NZ First formed a coalition. And just yesterday, she said the Greens could accept a NZ First coalition with Peters as deputy prime minister.
Low-lister Green MP Barry Coates was given short shrift by co-leader James Shaw for suggesting the party could force a second election if the only deal on the table was a Labour/NZ First Government with the Greens outside on a confidence and supply deal.
But then, what exactly did Turei mean by ‘‘unacceptable’’?
If those are indeed the cards the Greens are dealt, then they either accept it or do something about it – by definition, not accept it. But any idea that they’d be left with the power to force a second election or weaken Peters’ hand is ridiculous.
If he is kingmaker, his conversation with Labour will go something like this:
Peters to Labour leader Andrew Little: You go and get the Greens’ absolute support for a Labour/NZ First Government and we’ll talk. Little: I’ve checked, they’re not into it.
Peters: Well, we’ve got nothing to talk about here. [Picks up the phone to Bill English].
Because for all his obstinate difficulty, and refusal to be pinned down, Peters does actually operate by a code. He may not have much personal love for the Tories, but that’s where his politics lie. And where the Greens might love a good inquiry, NZ First is just as big a proponent of the referendum.
At his core, Peters feels an overt sense of democracy. Not speaking to the largest party first – at this stage it will be National – would run counter to that.
And so the Greens have the task of staying true to their values. Because if Peters is in the position, and the mood, to make a play against them, there’s very little they can do but hold on to their dignity and ride it out.
There’ll be jostling between the two to play out yet, but the Greens at least, will be careful not to cross a line they can’t come back from.
Because there’s one thing New Zealand voters can’t abide; politicians who can’t be trusted to get on with the job once elected.