Investing in our future
Let’s measure our success by how well our kids are doing at school,
People are central to the economy, and our education status matters a great deal when it comes to economic progress. Surprisingly, education was not a big issue in this election.
In one big study in the US, where they tracked people over many decades, they found the likelihood of a good job and income in adulthood depended on a lot of factors through life.
At each stage of life, success in key things like schooling opened or closed doors.
Falling off the ladder often meant a spiralling down of available opportunities and eventually life outcomes.
The best way to think about success in adulthood is an accumulation of many good outcomes at key stages in a person’s journey to adulthood. Simplistic arguments of just working harder and better parenting ignores the complexities of real life and evidence collected over decades.
The gap often starts early. Access to early childhood education is key, so that children develop acceptable pre-reading and math skills, as well as learn how to behave in a school-appropriate way.
New Zealand’s significant investment in early childhood education in recent years is very encouraging. Nearly 97 per cent of children now start school with prior participation in early childhood education. We need to ensure that success is measured by these children’s school readiness, and reduction of the previous gaps that existed because of what income family they came from.
In school, children learn reading, writing and math skills, as well as social and emotional skills. Nearly three quarters of students are achieving national standards for reading, writing and numeracy. This is good, but there is a quarter of children who are falling behind and will remain behind. Progress on this measure has been very slow and we need to explore alternatives urgently.
In adolescence, children will leave school. Sufficient qualifications for entry into tertiary education, whether university or trades, are important. Not having a conviction or becoming a parent at this stage is a key indicator of success in adulthood.
In 2009, only 42 per cent left school with Level 3 NCEA or above – approximating university entrance standards. This has improved significantly to 54 per cent in 2016. Still, nearly half school leavers will not go on to tertiary qualification. That is nearly 28,000 children who left school last year without Level 3 NCEA or above.
The improvement in school leaver education has been broadbased across deciles and ethnicity, but wide disparities remain. The highest performers are those of Asian ethnicity and those from high decile areas.
Three quarters of Asian school leavers have Level 3 NCEA or above, compared to 58 per cent for Pa¯keha¯, 43 per cent for Pasifika and 34 per cent for Ma¯ori. For the highest decile schools 80 per cent, and lowest 37 per cent. In high performing groupings, large majorities have a good shot at a good life. In low performing groups, the poverty trap beckons.
Recent improvements are encouraging, but there is a long way to go. Along the way, there are tens of thousands of children who will find fewer life opportunities.
Transition to adulthood is more likely to be successful with tertiary education, which tends to be the pathway towards stable work and good income.
Tertiary education is near the OECD average. For example, nearly 40 per cent of 25-34 year olds in New Zealand have a tertiary qualification, compared to the OECD average of 42 per cent. But lower than countries we normally compare ourselves to: Australia is 49 percent; UK is 50 per cent; and Canada is 59 per cent.
‘‘In the 21st century, the best anti-poverty programme around is a world-class education,’’ Barack Obama declared in his 2010 State of the Union address. New Zealand is making progress in some key areas of education, but there is a long way to go.
Education is one critical factor in our journey to successful adulthood. We must do better if we want to give every New Zealander a shot at progress, regardless of their background. To make real that illusion of egalitarianism we still hold so dear.