Lot riding on PM’s brekky politicking
Ardern’s Aussie brunch date could bring enormous benefits.
One’s a middle-aged multi-millionaire, and the other’s a millennial socialist. One leads a right-wing party that held the former New Zealand National Government’s economic policy as a shining example to emulate. The other is the left-wing leader who toppled that Government and holds a deep scepticism of capitalism.
It’s imperative Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s first meeting with her Australian counterpart Malcolm Turnbull goes well.
But there’s really no reason it wouldn’t.
Ardern has jetted across the ditch for Sunday brunch with Turnbull. It’s a short meeting and one that may be less productive than a typical bilateral discussion, jammed into a single morning so the pair could meet before they both head to Vietnam for Apec this week.
But it will be noless important than any first meeting between trans-Tasman leaders.
In fact, her toughest critic won’t be Turnbull. The pair have already spoken more than once in the 10 days Ardern has been PM, and both leaders appear to be on the same page – they want the relationship to get off to the best possible start.
Rather, it’s the Australian media and business community, which have all had a bemusing love affair with our former prime ministers John Key and Bill English, who could do with a flash of stardust if this government wants any gains for Kiwis’ rights across the ditch.
Australian policies towards stripping New Zealanders’ access to benefits is motivated purely by domestic politics.
It will require nothing but public goodwill to affect change, and where Key was held in awe by Turnbull and predecessor Tony Abbott, his gains came incredibly late in his eight years of lobbying.
Ardern will of course seek to reconfirm the pathway to citizenship forged by Key for New Zealanders living in Australia. But she will seek more information about rights to tertiary study there, and has already signalled a tit-fortat approach if they begin to be eroded.
Australia’s treatment of asylumseekers on offshore processing centres like Manus Island and Nauru will be raised, but human rights activists shouldn’t hold their breath for a stern lecture from Ardern; it won’t be happening.
Labour’s position on renegotiating parts of the TransPacific Partnership agreement on the sidelines of APEC will be of concern on Australia’s part. Of equal importance will be a confirmation from Ardern that New Zealand stands with Australia on areas of joint strategic interest in Asia and the South Pacific.
Flashpoints such as North Korea and tensions in the South China Sea will be raised, but Ardern will also have to move to re-emphasis New Zealand’s military contribution to regional strategic issues.
Perceptions in some Australian quarters that New Zealand is somewhat of a political freeloader militarily, are unfair. But while Ardern will be cautious to tread her own path on decisions to commit our defence hardware to joint missions, she will likely have to give assurances she’s canned her predecessor’s campaign promise to pull New Zealand troops from Iraq.
That’s one hell of an agenda for a late breakfast, but it’s really the leaders’ personal relationship that’s the most important thing to cement early on.
When Key resigned, Turnbull texted him saying ‘‘say it ain’t so, bro’’. It was under Turnbull he managed to gain an important pathway for New Zealanders to become Australian citizens.
His personal friendship with former President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping both resulted in tangible gains for New Zealand.
Where Ardern is bent on making last minute changes to the biggest free-trade agreement negotiated by 11 Governments not her own, she could do with a friend in her corner.