Why New Zealand will need some luck
Anything can happen in a twolegged World Cup playoff.
Opinion A German coach – I can’t remember who – was asked to comment on an upcoming match. He finished his assessment with: ‘‘Let’s see what’s gonna happen.’’ It wasn’t a meaningless, throw away cliche. It was wisdom gleaned from decades of watching football matches. Matches in which anything can and does happen. Strange penalties given. Inexplicable mistakes made. Unpredictability. Brilliance. Luck. However the teams prepare, however well they play, events fall largely outside their control.
That was certainly the case in the South American World Cup qualifying group. The Lotto balls bounced around, and the one that popped out, the one that mattered to New Zealand, had Peru written on it. The feeling here was that Peru was the team we wanted. Since Peru have no players the average Kiwi fan has heard of – no Messi, Aguerro, Falcao or Sanchez – we might actually have a shout.
Well, Argentina and Colombia have their superstars and they only qualified for Russia by the skin of their teeth, and Chile missed out altogether. Peru’s best players don’t play for the world’s best teams, and bar Andre Carillo, who plays for Watford in England’s Premier League, they ply their trades in second class leagues like those in Holland, Portugal, Mexico, Brazil, the United States and Peru. Is Los Incas’ lack of world famous names, rather than being a weakness, actually a strength?
Peru are not short on team spirit. To survive the Conmebol group from hell, which had six teams in the world’s top 20, they had to fight like honey badgers for every point. They drew home and away with Argentina, and beat Uruguay. If the All Whites are thinking they’ll out passion Peru with ‘‘good old fashioned Kiwi grit’’ . . . well, they won’t. Because while the All Whites badly want to win, Peru have to win. If the All Whites lose, they’ll be gutted, but their lives will go on just fine. But a defeat for Peru will bring disgrace. Media tearing them apart. Fans giving them stick for years.
And the Peruvians are big. Fans of English football might remember the diminutive Peruvian Nolberto Solano, who played for several clubs, principally Newcastle United, from 1998-2013. At just 1.73m and 71kg, Solano frightened teams more with his skill than his physique. It would be a mistake to think your typical Peruvian is like Solano. Of the team that drew with Colombia to make this play off, six players are 1.82m-plus.
They have an average age of 27, and nearly 500 national team appearances between them.
Let’s go back to the bit about no superstars. Not quite correct. The jewel in their crown is striker Paolo Guerrero – or at least he was until news broke yesterday that he failed a doping test against Argentina. Guerrero will now miss the All Whites match and his absence is significant. Peru’s all time record scorer struck nearly 50 goals in Germany’s Bundesliga with Bayern Munich and Hamburg, and now plays with Brazilian giants Flamengo. Perhaps that’s the bit of luck we need.
Despite his ban, New Zealand face a team of big, tough, experienced and technically excellent players. A team ranked No 10 in the world to the All Whites’ 122.
But history is full of huge upsets. In 1950, the US beat England. North Korea beat Italy in 1966. Algeria beat West Germany in 1982. Cameroon beat Argentina in 1990, and Senegal beat France in 2002.
Those results were all in one-off games, and New Zealand have the added challenge of overcoming Peru over two games. One good result isn’t enough. So they will have to play the best 180 minutes of their lives. They’ll have to fight fire with fire to smother Peru’s midfield. In periods when they’re forced to park the jumbo, they’ll need some luck and some superhero goalkeeping from Stefan Marinovich.