Bridges will bet election on reshuffle
Leader set to pick his World Cup squad, when he names a new front bench. And the final is in 2020.
Keep your friends close, your enemies closer – and the dead wood near the aisle for a fuss-free exit. It would be a good approach for new National Party leader Simon Bridges to adopt when he unveils his reshaped caucus lineup this afternoon.
There will be rewards, there will be disappointments, but recent suppositions that there will be any harsh punishment may be wide of the mark.
It’s likely Bridges’ reshuffle will have an eye firmly on
2020 and any personal grievances MPs have following the outcome of the leadership election will be expected to be buried.
Those of his MPs he chooses for highranking positions will be those deemed to be likely ministerial material.
And with Steven Joyce gone – the last of the power troika that steered the National carriage (with John Key in the middle and Bill English on the right) – it’s now or never for Bridges to make some big calls.
There’s at least one obvious call.
Judith Collins at number 14 can expect a boost up the ranks, in Opposition is where she’s at her best and all indications point to the Papakura MP getting a high-profile regional development-type portfolio.
In the billion-dollar battleground for the regions, National is going to need a personality to outshine Shane Jones, and a wily straighttalker to snap the dollar signs from the eyes of the regions that the coalition government will do its level best to buy off.
And there’ll be a number of obvious front-benchers who will be looked after: Jonathan Coleman, Gerry Brownlee, Todd McClay, Nikki Kaye.
Perhaps the likes of Scott Simpson or Louise Upston can expect a boost.
But it’s understood there’ll be some surprises in store, with a special attack approach on portfolios like housing and justice.
A slight wobble on the Government’s housing track this week saw one of Labour’s economists of choice while in Opposition, Infometrics, slam its Kiwibuild policy as a case of the party ‘‘pulling numbers out of its arse’’.
Those kinds of vulnerabilities will be what National is eyeing up and Bridges would have a longterm view to exploit them, reflected in the people he picks.
It may not just be about who is in each portfolio either, but the way it’s grouped and therefore the message it sends.
‘‘Justice, law and order’’ has a very singular ring to it for National Party purposes. As the Government is less than a month out from having to make a decision on Waikeria Prison, the only option is to build it and somehow make it more palatable to Labour voters in doing so.
The centre right is already testing out its argument that Labour is considering ways to reduce the prison muster; that the only way to do that in the short term is to let criminals out of prison. This portfolio, or any associated with it as part of a wider team, could hold some surprise picks.
Bridges has publicly picked backbencher and former justice and electoral committee chair Sarah Dowie as one worthy of promotion.
And in more aspirational portfolios, environment, conservation and transport and infrastructure are likely to be seen to be strength areas.
Today’s announcement is Bridges’ first big test and will set the tone for National’s approach over the next two years.
But National won’t restrict Jacinda Ardern’s government to an improbable single term without some big gambles.
With Steven Joyce gone it’s now or never for Bridges to make some big calls.