Kiwis can’t trust luck to survive pandemics
Although experts agree the mass deaths that occurred from the 1918 Spanish Flu in New Zealand could happen again, they’re in disagreement over how to deal with it.
‘‘In many ways the world of 2018 is more conducive to a 1918-like pandemic than 1918,’’ says Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the John Hopkins centre for Health Security.
Global travel, population increases and cramped cities could also encourage a virus to spread ‘‘like wildfire’’, he says while adding that pharmaceutical companies lack interest in infectious disease research, and few are hunting for new vaccines or treatments.
Head of Auckland University’s Superbugs Lab, Dr Siouxsie Wiles, says we’ve been lucky around swine and avian flu, and the Zika virus. She’s concerned that there is complacency – verging on recklessness – on the threat of a pandemic.
Wiles says factors increasing the likelihood of a pandemic include greater risk of cross-species contamination, as people encroach further into the habitats of wild animals and her greatest fear is around rampant antibiotic use.
Wiles says flu sufferers are typically killed by conditions like pneumonia, which she believes may soon be untreatable.
But Professor Kanta Subbarao, director of the World Health Organisation’s centre for reference and research on influenza, says 1918 was a perfect storm for the virus – including huge population displacement caused by war – and in the three flu pandemics since – in 1967, 1968 and 2009 – the number of deaths has decreased.
‘‘That gives me hope.’’ Professor Michael Baker, from the University of Otago Department of Public Health, says NZ borders should be closed in the event of a pandemic that is ‘‘absolutely devastating and unstoppable’’.
Baker co-authored a paper examining the pros and cons of a total border closure, using data from past influenza pandemics and modelled on two scenarios, one for a death toll of 12,973, the second for 129,730 deaths.
Adalja disagrees, arguing restricting movement of people – and medical supplies – to the site of an outbreak could worsen the situation.
‘‘In most cases, border closures are not driven by the actual scientific principles of infectious disease management but by political considerations and a need to ‘do something’.’’
Health Minister Dr David Clark said the official Ministry of Health position is not to close the border, because the ease of transmission meant it was ‘‘highly likely’’ a pandemic would arrive undetected.
Clark says Ministry officials are set to meet with Wilson to discuss their suggestions and report back, something he said may prompt further work and formal discussions at Cabinet level.
Dr Heather Battles, University of Auckland Anthropology School of Social Sciences lecturer and researcher into infectious disease and epidemics, says one of the major lessons of previous pandemics has been the importance of cooperation, support and assistance.
‘‘Good communication, both among health officials and with the public, and support for those affected and their families, would be key.’’