Pullout plan pleases Taliban
The Taliban has welcomed news of the US plan to withdraw half its troops in Afghanistan by the middle of next year, while Afghan generals say it is a blow to the morale of the country’s beleaguered security forces, who come under daily attacks from the insurgent fighters.
The announcement yesterday seems certain to complicate efforts to reach a peace deal, mostly because it gives the Taliban leverage – by allowing them to hold off until a total US withdrawal, or to step up their demands over a weakened Afghan Government.
‘‘I believe the Taliban will see this as a reason to stall, and therefore it disincentivises the Taliban to actually talk to the Afghan Government, which it has refused to do,’’ said Bill Roggio, an Afghanistan analyst with the Washington-based Foundation for Defence of Democracies.
Afghanistan’s security forces rely heavily on US air power against both Taliban and an upstart Islamic State affiliate.
Afghan military officials said the announcement by the Trump administration came with the country’s security situation is at its worst since 2014, when more than 100,000 Nato troops pulled out of the country and handed responsibility for security to Afghans. The US and Nato retreated into a training and advising role.
‘‘A complete withdrawal of US forces would very likely cause the Taliban to make gains in key areas throughout Afghanistan,’’ Roggio said. ‘‘This likely would cause the general collapse of the [Afghan National Security and Defence Force] as a cohesive fighting force and lead to the return of the warlords.’’
US President Donald Trump considers the war in Afghanistan a lost cause and has long pushed to pull the troops out. His decision was made public just a few hours after he abruptly announced that the US was withdrawing its troops from Syria.
Trump’s state of mind is sure to have given a sense of urgency to US peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, who has been working to reach a negotiated end to America’s longest war and has been pushing for a deal by April.
The Afghan war has already cost America more than 2400 dead and nearly US$1 trillion since a 2001 US-led invasion.
A Taliban official said the announcement was a positive step. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official said Taliban officials thought the promised departure could help the peace process because it could ‘‘lead to trust building that the US wants a political solution’’.
But there are no signs that the Taliban are ready to move on the two major sticking points: direct talks with the Afghan Government, and a ceasefire while the two sides negotiate Khalilzad’s so-called ‘‘road map for the future of Afghanistan’’.
Peace talks aside, the announced withdrawal has Afghan generals and analysts worried about the ability of the beleaguered Afghan National Afghan Security Force to stave off a Taliban insurgency unfettered by US forces and their devastating air power.
The Taliban are already stronger today than they have been since their ouster in 2001, controlling or holding sway over nearly half the country.
Several high-ranking Afghan military officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the morale of Afghanistan’s undertrained and poorly equipped security forces was already at a dangerously low ebb. The troops routinely complain about reinforcements that arrive too late, equipment that fails, and even running out of food.
The officials called America’s withdrawal a defeat, comparing it to the US’s evacuation from Vietnam, and Russia’s 1979 forced withdrawal from Afghanistan that capped a failed 10-year campaign.
Ordinary Afghans have mixed feelings about the presence of US and Nato troops. Many fear their departure, believing it will strengthen the Taliban, yet criticise their presence for doing little to improve security, which has deteriorated. Afghans complain bitterly about their deeply corrupt government and see the US – which largely bankrolls the government – as responsible.
Neighbour Pakistan, which has been harshly criticised by Trump for not doing enough to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table, warned that a sudden departure of US troops would result in chaos in Afghanistan and destabilise the region.
‘‘A complete withdrawal of US forces would very likely cause the Taliban to make gains in key areas.’’ Bill Roggio, Afghanistan analyst