Stacey Kirk
Maybe we shouldn’t expect much from an upcoming seat shuffle at the Cabinet table. It’s a shame, because ultimately Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s current Cabinet is basically the one she inherited via the caucus rankings set by former party leader Andrew Little.
While she’s likely broadly happy with it, it’s not necessarily one she’s had the opportunity to put her own stamp on.
And with the capital Ardern has, she could be as bold as she wants – with the Labour portion at least. There are no cabals who would dare threaten destabilisation should she send an MP moving the wrong way, as under past Labour leaders.
No, the only inhibitor is the quality and depth of the people who work for her. In a Cabinet of 20, Ardern has 16 positions she can fully play with. Outside of Cabinet there are another six positions, which gives a little more flexibility.
It goes without saying, any changes in portfolios carried by NZ First or the Greens must be done in agreement with the leadership of those parties and Ardern would likely have no real say to whom those portfolios are dished out.
Within these terms, Ardern has a few problems to address.
In a lineup where the first iteration only just managed to tick the box of adequate female representation, Ardern has to replace one woman who was arguably there to fill a quota in the first place – as incompetent as Clare Curran proved to be.
She also faces complications with sacked Meka Whaitiri, who is widely acknowledged to have bruised a staffer, yet is still fixing for a ministerial return. ‘‘Fat chance’’ would be the appropriate response, but with the apparent support of the Ma¯ ori caucus it’s an added layer of complexity.
In a pool of 14 potential women that could be brought to or near the Cabinet table, only three have been in parliament for more than a term – Poto Williams, Ruth Dyson and Louisa Wall.
Williams would bring Cook Islands and female representation, but is the least experienced of the three. Dyson is considered a very safe pair of hands, albeit a bit uninspiring. Wall might consider she has the experience but is understood to be a rather unpopular member of the caucus, with an inability to stay in her lane as it is.
Meanwhile, of the freshman intake, Deborah Russell is highly regarded by some caucus colleagues but Ardern must be aware that the promotion of any first-termer is a tacit admission there is no one else.
While many assume embattled Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway is headed for the gallows, they’d be forgetting the extent to which Ardern has defended him. To punish him so late for the poor handling of the Karel Sroubek affair, would be to undermine her own decision. She can, however, relieve him of Immigration in the name of public confidence, and leave him with still weighty Workplace Relations and Employment and ACC portfolios.
Surely Associate Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi – still outside of Cabinet with four ministerial portfolios acquired through the demise of others – has proved his worth. Get that man both a beer and a seat at the table, already.
But it’s all cosmetic. The biggest issue in need of addressing is hamstrung by the existence of the issue in the first place – experience and competence. In the lower ranks, it just isn’t there.
Ardern’s only inhibitor is the quality and depth of the people who work for her.