Danielle McLaughlin
Donald Trump came roaring out of the gates with his second official State of the Union Address. The response of the politicians assembled in the chamber of the House of Representatives primarily depended on their party affiliation. As is typical in this theatre, the party of the president was effusive and enthusiastic with standing applause, while the party in opposition mostly pouted, their backsides glued to their chairs.
But Trump wasn’t talking to the politicians. He was talking over them, to the people, as a former speechwriter for George H W Bush reminded me on Wednesday. And it was quite the communique. Mercifully, no pundit declared the president was ‘‘presidential’’, the low bar now a tiresome measure two years into the presidency. But it most certainly was a pivot. A turn from the darkness of his inaugural speech’s ‘‘American carnage’’. A pitch for bipartisanship, now a necessity for the President with Congress divided.
Some of it was old Trump, of course. A veiled threat to halt cooperation on legislation in light of ongoing investigations into his campaign, transition and businesses. A smattering of wellworn exaggerations relating to the economy and job numbers. A characterisation of the immigration situation on the southern border as a ‘‘crisis’’ even though illegal immigration is at modern historic lows (and the humanitarian crisis is partly of Trump’s making).
But the parts of it that were new Trump might concern any challenger for the presidency. If, that is, the new Trump can exist beyond the refined air of the House Chamber.
After two years of rolling back legal immigration protections for refugees and in the long shadow of his ‘‘Muslim ban’’ and attacks on ‘‘chain migration’’ for family members of legal immigrants, the president praised legal immigrants, who ‘‘enrich our nation and strengthen our society in countless ways’’. As a legal immigrant to the United States and someone who fancies herself as an enricher and a strengthener, it was pleasing to hear. Does he finally get it, I wondered.
The president announced plans to eradicate HIV in 10 years alongside an injection of research funding to fight childhood cancer. He offered a nuanced solution to securing the southern border, including increased law enforcement, better drug detection at ports of entry, and a ‘‘physical barrier, or wall … a smart, strategic see-through steel barrier’’.
To win in 2020, the president needs to win over more than just Republicans. And he made that outreach in his speech, asking his audience that America ‘‘go forward together’’. But he has to keep hold of his base, too. So will this mean that old Trump and new Trump will have to coexist? The nasty Twitter Trump, the bellicose, rally Trump, and the State of the Union bipartisan Trump?
The answer is yes.
The next question is whether the president can thread that needle.
History is on his side. Most incumbent Presidents win re-election. The most notable recent exception being George H W Bush, who lost in 1992 to Bill Clinton. But re-election requires a strategic shift towards the middle. President Trump’s problem is that the things that excite his base – the border wall, trade wars, attacks on media, political incorrectness – don’t play so well to a broader audience (as his approval ratings suggest). And capitulating on them to please the crowd may turn his base away.
Political limitations aside, there are also external factors to consider: global events, the state of the US economy, the strength of the Democratic candidate, and the drum beat of 17 (yes, 17) investigations swirling around the president.
That said, he has the bully pulpit. He may not face a bruising primary challenger. The Republican party appears committed to protecting him.
At this point, predictions are pointless. Irresponsible even. But if Trump can be old Trump and new Trump, don’t count him out.
Danielle McLaughlin is the Sunday Star-Times’ US correspondent. She is a lawyer, author, and political and legal commentator, appearing frequently on US and New Zealand TV and radio. She is also an ambassador for #ChampionWomen, which aims to encourage respectful, diverse, and thoughtful conversations. Follow Danielle on Twitter at @MsDMcLaughlin.