Danielle McLaughlin

With only 4 per cent of the Democratic primary elections completed, and just 64 of the 3979 delegates up for grabs in those elections claimed, candidates are dropping like flies. Although predictions are a dangerous thing in any election, some of the remaining candidates – including a one-time clear favourite – may soon follow suit.

This week, former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick, Colorado senator Michael Bennet and businessman Andrew Yang ended their campaigns. Patrick entered the race last November. But it was late – too late – to build out a campaign or attract real donor money.

Patrick’s lacklustre result in New Hampshire on Tuesday, a neighbouring state to his home state of Massachusetts, convinced his team that if he couldn’t make a good showing there with voters who know him, he couldn’t persuade them where they didn’t.

Bennet is one of the last few moderates in the senate who took a truly bipartisan approach to his job (he called the senate a ‘‘sociopathic’’ place in an interview with Vox.com).

He spent a lot of time during his short-lived campaign in ‘‘retail’’ politics – shaking hands and speaking at voter town halls.

Perhaps his most notable pitch, in reference to the chaos of the Trump presidency, was: ‘‘If you elect me president, I promise you won’t have to think about me for two weeks at a time.’’

But as a relative unknown in a crowded field, when he actually needed voters to ‘‘think about’’ him, they were thinking about other things, and other candidates.

Yang, the upstart of this cycle, ran on one big idea: universal basic income (UBI), or a ‘‘freedom dividend’’ of US$1000 a month paid to every American over the age of 18 as an answer to poverty, inequality, and the rise of AI and automation.

He attracted a ‘‘Yang Gang’’ of (mostly young and male) devoted followers to rival – in dedication, if not in numbers – Bernie Sanders’ ‘‘Berners’’.

His casual approach bothered some, but delighted others who thought Yang was the only one actually having fun on the campaign trail. He leaves a legacy that Patrick and Bennet do not.

First, the fact that UBI has become a part of the policy discussion in the US. Second, the Yang Gang. There is no doubt that the remaining candidates will be vying for Yang’s endorsement and (they hope) the transferred love and devotion of his ‘‘gang’’.

With a worse than expected fifth place in New Hampshire, and after a less-than-stellar fourth place in Iowa, Joe Biden is on the ropes.

It is a stunning fall for the former front-runner and the two-term vice-president to a beloved Democratic president.

Biden led the Democratic primary field long before he even joined the race. Almost without exception, he topped every national poll conducted since late 2018.

Sanders now has the lead in four of the six national polls conducted this month, and without an extremely strong showing in South Carolina on February 29, Biden’s last run for president might be coming to an end.

The 11 left, including front-runners (at this stage) Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, have – as Robert Frost might say – miles to go before they sleep.

Senator Elizabeth Warren’s poor showing in New Hampshire, the state to the north of her home state of Massachusetts, is a sign that she might be in trouble.

Like Patrick, it was thought to be a given that voters in a neighbouring state who knew her would come out for her. They did not.

Buttigieg has outperformed expectations in the first two states, but concerns over whether he can win over minority voters linger.

Billionaire and former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg is spending millions to blanket the airwaves with advertising, but it remains to be seen whether he can buy enough ads to catch up to the other candidates.

Ultimately, of course, what these candidates should care most about is that one of them will take a seat at the resolute desk in the Oval Office in January 2021.

But it’s not clear whether they are keeping that goal front of mind. Biden, who is competing for moderates’ votes against Buttigieg, put out a condescending ad this week comparing Pete’s achievements as mayor with Joe’s as VP.

Biden’s campaign manager announced on CNN this week that Buttigieg would not be ready on day one of his presidency. Sanders continues to rail against all of his competitors and the Democratic Party in general.

What happens when one of these final 11 faces Donald Trump, who will be prepared not only with his own attacks but the attacks fashioned by members of their own party?

Nothing good.

Sparing your rivals from intra-party attacks isn’t the only lesson from 2016 that the Democratic candidates seem to have forgotten.

No-one (or at least, very few people) thought Trump would make it through the Republican primary campaign. No-one thought he would get his party’s nomination. Few thought he would win the presidency (including him).

He did all of that. He managed it for a number of reasons – an electoral college system that gave him a win with three million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton; a third-party candidate, Jill Stein, who took votes from Clinton; and Russia’s manipulation behind the scenes, which was calculated to benefit him.

But he also made it through because not enough members of other campaigns took him seriously.

The primary race is long. Biden is counting on this, promising his supporters that after South Carolina and Nevada’s primaries, his ‘‘electability’’ will be proven.

And it is premature to count him out. He’s a survivor. He has endured the loss of his first wife and baby daughter in a car crash in 1972, and his adult son, Beau, from brain cancer just four years ago.

He is known as a fighter, and has held on to his working-class roots – a quality that enamours him to blue-collar voters of all races and in every region of the United States.

I wouldn’t count Biden out today. But by the end of this month, we’ll all know if he has a fighting chance.

Danielle McLaughlin is the Sunday Star-Times’ US correspondent. She is a lawyer, author, and political and legal commentator, appearing frequently on US and New Zealand TV and radio. She is also an ambassador for #ChampionWomen, which aims to encourage respectful, diverse, and thoughtful conversations. Follow Danielle on Twitter at @MsDMcLaughlin.