An $8b opportunity
Film and education can help re-start economy
Businesses in New Zealand are concentrating on survival during the lockdown period and having to reimagine and plan how they will operate in coming months and years. Organisations in sectors that depend on international visitors are of particular concern.
These sectors bring billions of dollars into the country and represent thousands of jobs, so how we ease them back onto the global stage will define our economy for at least the next 24 months.
While we hear many worst-case scenarios, there will be constructive opportunities to move many organisations out of trade isolation and back into earning money for the country.
Sectors that depend on international visitors coming here – tourism, film and education, to name three large and obvious ones – are currently planning for crushing losses in the months ahead.
In our sector alone – education – international students are worth more than $5 billion to the economy and generate income that enables our universities, polytechnics and schools to deliver world-class education.
The film industry is worth another $3b and has had a huge role in enhancing New Zealand’s reputation on the world stage. Both sectors also economically support the communities in which they operate, as well as a host of suppliers.
Some projections suggest international visitors might not be admitted into New Zealand until the middle of 2021.
If that eventuates, it would have a devastating effect on these sectors. Our education institutions have carefully developed a thriving ‘‘win-win’’ business model over several decades, providing outstanding education to international students while generating income that keeps fees down domestically.
Still, a delayed opening of borders for inbound travel is something for which we must be prepared. Only fools would argue against very tight restrictions on our borders in the near term, even if that causes economic hardship within New Zealand.
However, good strategic planning also means considering staged scenarios that lead us back to recovery – and possibly even improving on where we were in the prepandemic era.
While New Zealand is not out of the woods yet, there are signs that we may have escaped mass infection spread and might soon be able to return to some workplaces.
And this means there will be opportunities for some industries to start back up sooner than others and to prosper because of a return to normality more quickly than other countries.
If New Zealand is successful in controlling or even eliminating the virus before many other countries do, we would suddenly be sought after as a destination country by international students and film-makers.
But even with tight border controls, international students and film-makers could begin arriving, as long as they are subject to strict screening and quarantine.
For the tourism sector, sadly, this scenario is not likely to be of much comfort. Tourists don’t visit New Zealand to spend the first two weeks in a hotel room.
But for sectors in which visitors typically stay for months or even years, such as film and education, a two-week quarantine will be a small price to pay to be able to study or work relatively free of the risk of infection.
However, even the tourism industry would benefit from the thousands of international students arriving, and the longterm reputation that would continue to be built by the film industry.
We could further manage the risks of long-term visitors by requiring a recent, negative test prior to departing for New Zealand.
And we could limit visitors to institutions or workplaces that have acceptable social distancing plans, for as long as those measures are required.
Although not necessarily endorsing this specific proposal, our university leaders are very conscious of the financial shortfalls that travel restrictions are causing and working on creative solutions to maintain an international presence and body of students so that the university sector more broadly can do its part to re-start the economy.
For individual businesses and as a country, we need to look for ways that we can protect ourselves from the ravages of this coronavirus and to prosper economically.
The health of New Zealanders is dependent on eliminating the virus and also on having a healthy economy. If we are as successful as it seems we might be, let’s build on that success by creatively looking for opportunities to restart vital sectors.
We are not advocating any let-up of vigilance but promoting a constructive discussion of how selected opportunities can be realised for the benefit of all of us.
If New Zealand is successful in controlling or even eliminating the virus before many other countries do, we would suddenly be sought after as a destination country by international students and film-makers.
Professor Ted Zorn is Massey University’s head of executive development, and Jens Mueller is Professor of Management Practice at Massey.